NFL Week 1 Monday Night Football’s Player Props for a Promising Game for the Broncos

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Javonte Williams #33 of the Denver Broncos turns up field after a reception during a 34-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Nothing says welcome to Denver like Russell Wilson playing against his old team, the Seattle Seahawks, in Week 1 on Monday Night Football.

Wilson’s Broncos are a 6.5-point road favorite according to the NFL odds at many of the top-rated sportsbooks.

The scoring may not be off the charts in this one with Denver’s stingy defense facing Geno Smith, but which prop picks look like a good value in this matchup? We have you covered.

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Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

Monday, September 12, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Lumen Field

Running Back Touchdown Scorer: Javonte Williams

While Melvin Gordon is still involved in the Denver offense, new coach Nathaniel Hackett needs to view second-year back Javonte Williams as the Aaron Jones of this offense. He should be playing on all three downs and getting most of the touches.

Jones was a touchdown machine in Hackett’s offense in Green Bay, and it would be great to see Williams get off to a strong start in 2022 with Wilson at quarterback. Hopefully, he won’t get vultured at the 1-yard line by Gordon (+175), who is tied for the fifth-best odds of scoring a touchdown in this game. Williams had more touchdown catches (three) last season than Courtland Sutton (two) and Jerry Jeudy (zero) combined.

But the worst would be if Wilson (+1900) snuck in a touchdown from the 1-yard line, because he is notoriously one of the worst sneakers in the game.

Wilson has 23 career rushing touchdowns but half of those came in 2012-14. He usually gets two or three a season, but I would not bother to take the long shot here. He just wants to see his new teammates get in the end zone either way.

The Touchdown Odds Are Not Too Promising For This Game

But the fact that Williams has the highest touchdown odds at +110 is also telling of how this game is being viewed by sportsbooks as low scoring. Many games these days have a player with odds of -150 or higher to score a touchdown, but not this one.

Part of that could be the uncertainty of how the teams will use their backfields, and part could just be that the expectations are not high for many touchdowns in this matchup with a total of 44.5 points.

NFL Pick: Javonte Williams for Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Javonte Williams for Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
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Wide Receiver Touchdown Scorer: Jerry Jeudy or DK Metcalf?

Two other players with some of the highest expectations to find the end zone in this game are wide receivers:

  • DK Metcalf (+175)
  • Jerry Jeudy (+150)

Both are going to be relied on heavily this year, but what about this matchup?

DK Metcalf

Metcalf had four of Geno Smith’s five touchdown passes last season, but overall, his 2021 was very disappointing.

Metcalf finished with just 967 yards despite playing in all 17 games. But he did catch a career-high 12 touchdowns, which always keeps him on your mind for this prop bet.

But Denver has a good secondary with corner Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons. They will hopefully prevent Metcalf from breaking the huge play for a long touchdown.

Jerry Jeudy

Meanwhile, Jeudy has only caught three touchdowns on 90 career catches, and none of those scores were shorter than 20 yards. But with Wilson as his quarterback, Jeudy can expect much more accurate passes, and those flashes of getting deep should pay off well for this offense.

In fact, I think Wilson will want to hit a perfect touchdown bomb to Jeudy the way he could do with Tyler Lockett when he was in Seattle.

I would lean towards Jeudy being the better value pick in this matchup. Whether it’s a bomb or a short pass in the red zone to get some chemistry down, Wilson is going to want to get Jeudy involved immediately this season.

The Broncos also are missing their usual red-zone targets with Tim Patrick on IR and Noah Fant traded to Seattle as part of the Wilson trade. They led the Broncos in touchdown catches the last two years.

NFL Pick: Jerry Jeudy for Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150) at Bovada

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Jerry Jeudy for Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
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Both Teams to Score Over 19.5 Points?

In looking at game prop picks on Bovada, one market is to determine if both teams will score over 19.5 points in this game. Denver should be able to get there, though we have seen crazier things with Wilson-led teams on Monday Night Football.

But this feels like a big ask for Seattle, given that Denver held 10 teams to 17 or fewer points last season, tied with Buffalo for the most games in the league.

Geno Smith has led his team to at least 20 points in 47.1% of his career starts (16-of-34).

Add a higher caliber of defense from Denver, and this feels like a good game to take the under on. Both teams will not score 20 points.

NFL Pick: Both Teams Will Not Score Over 19.5 Points (-150) at Bovada

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Both Teams Will Not Score Over 19.5 Points (-150)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.