NFL Week 1 Last Chance Value Picks Include Two Underdogs and a Road Favorite

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Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals looks on prior to the game against the Indianapolis Colts. Chris Coduto/Getty Images/AFP.

We studied the numbers and went over them like a by-the-book IRS agent. From this, we have our determination of what seems like the best value NFL picks.

You may disagree, which is just fine because the NFL odds and football picks are almost always going to have differences of opinion.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans Saints Analysis

If there is a team that could supplant Tampa Bay at the head of the NFC South it is New Orleans.

The Saints have a superb defense which was 7th in yards allowed and 4th in points surrendered. Expect the stop troops to continue to be a force as former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen takes over as head coach.

Offensively, Jameis Winston showed last season with proper instruction, he can limit mistakes and not force throws. The pass offense should be much improved for the Saints with far more talent. And the running game should be sound with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

Atlanta Falcons Analysis

Atlanta is starting over, like from the beginning. Marcus Mariota is their starting quarterback and the last time he held that job was in Tennessee in 2019.

Their top runner is a converted receiver, Cordelle Patterson. The defense was 25th in yards allowed and 29th in points given up last fall.

The Falcons have covered one of the last nine home games and that happened in 2020.

NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints -5.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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New Orleans Saints -5.5 (-110)
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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers Analysis

The Green Bay Packers are small favorites, but that feels like the top-rated sportsbooks are playing into public perception. The Packers have lost their top two receivers from a year ago, Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Their top returning pass catcher is Allen Lazard and he’s ‘questionable’ (undisclosed) as tight end Robert Tonyan, who is returning from a knee injury. That leaves way past their prime Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, along with no-names and rookies.

Upfront starting tackles Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari are also 50-50, though the belief is one of them will start. Though the Minnesota defense is hardly elite, Aaron Rodgers is highly compromised on available receivers who can get open.

Minnesota Vikings Analysis

Now let’s look at the Vikings. Say what you will about Kirk Cousins, he sometimes has awful outings but he is mostly productive. 

Throwing the pigskin to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen is far better than what the Pack has to offer and Dalvin Cook is explosive as a runner or receiver.

This wouldn’t be easy for the Packers with everyone 100%, let alone with their current plight. The Vikes are a solid 38-21 ATS as a home underdog and win outright.

NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110)
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs Analysis

Interesting spot for Kansas City, who has been bumped from -3.5 to -6 in the Arizona desert. Our presumption is the news that starting receivers Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz are ‘questionable’ and the cornerbacks’ position has gone into disarray with freak occurrences, right before Patrick Mahomes shows up.

Maybe the Chiefs roll into Glendale and tumble the Redbirds like a severe dust storm can do to cactus. But seeing the Cardinals are home and have a two-year history of fast starts, taking the points is not insane.

Though K.C. is 6-3 ATS in their last nine away lid lifters, they might have an eye on the future, hosting the Chargers on Thursday in the home opener.

Arizona Cardinals Analysis

Kyler Murray is all smiles after signing a big contract and he’ll want to match TDs with Mahomes.

With the Cards on a small 4-1 ATS move against the AFC and 13-5 ATS as a non-division home pooch, grabbing the digits in this confrontation.

NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals +6 (-110) at Bovada

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Arizona Cardinals +6 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.