NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 12: Where are the Upsets?

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Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

After a stunning 14-2 ATS finish two weeks ago, Swinger cooled down to 8-7 ATS last week. Let’s see if he can get double-digit covers in Week 12 as he scours the NFL odds board and gets back to busting our bookmakers!

Swinger’s 2021 Pick All Record (22-9 ATS)

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

Thursday, November 25, 2021 – 12:30 PM EST at Ford Field

It looks like Andy Dalton will go in place of the injured Justin Fields but that’s really six of one or half a dozen of the other. Neither quarterback scares anyone but despite the Chicago offense facing one of the most anemic defenses in Detroit.

I refuse to lay points with a 3-7 team that ranks dead last in passing yards regardless of who they’re playing. Take the points.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 19 – Bears 17

NFL Pick: Lions +3 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Lions +3 (-105)
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Vegas Raiders vs. DallasCowboys

Thursday, November 25, 2021 - 04:30 PM EST at AT&T Stadium

The Dallas offense is too potent to be shut down for a second consecutive week but before you bet big bucks on the Boyz, understand they have injuries starting with Amari Cooper, who will be sidelined due to Covid protocols, and CeeDee Lamb (concussion protocol) who is questionable although it is likely he will play.

The hook on this line making it north of seven is also a concern but I don’t see the Raiders keeping this within the margins based on how they have played recently. Their deep threat, Henry Ruggs, who is no longer in the mix, at least kept pass defenses honest due to his blazing speed. That’s no longer an issue and Dallas will play better cover defense because of it.

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 37– Raiders 24

NFL Pick: Cowboys -7 ½ (-110) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

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Cowboys -7 ½ (-110)
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Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints

Thursday, November 25, 2021 - 08:20 PM EST at Caesars Superdome

The NFL odds at most of the best online sportsbooks are dealing the Bills as six-point road chalk but there is one premier book, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), that is holding fast at 5 ½ and for that we are grateful. We are actually getting value on the Bills here because they looked dreadful last week and the public has cooled on Josh Allen.

Happy to hear it because they should have no problems slicing and dicing through this porous Saints defense. Marshon Lattimore might limit Stefon Diggs somewhat but the rest of Allen’s targets will be wide open. Kamara is likely out for New Orleans which is more good news. Lay it and like it with the Bills.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Saints 17

NFL Pick: Bills -5 ½ (-110) at BetOnline

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Bills -5 ½ (-110)
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Will Buffalo's QB Josh Allen #17 be able to jump the remaining hurdles? Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at Paul Brown Stadium

The Steelers are banged up on the defensive side of the ball but while Minkah Fitzpatrick will miss this one, we could see the return of T.J. Watt along with cornerback Joe Haden. And although those two will put a crimp in Joe Burrow’s aerial attack, it won’t be nearly as bad as what Ben Roethlisberger will face once his offensive line wilts under the pressure of the Bengals pass rush.

The Steelers simply can’t produce enough points, last week was an outlier for several reasons, and won’t keep pace with the Bengals in this one. We look for a similar 24-10 Cincinnati win as in Week 3 when these teams met for the first time this season.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Steelers 10

NFL Pick: Bengals -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Bengals -4 (-108)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

This is a great spot to bet the Bucs as the Colts have become the NFL’s “little engine that could” after slaying the Bills last week, 41-15, and catching the eye of the betting public. But the biggest weapon the Colts have is Jonathan Taylor, he of the five TD performance last week, but the Bucs’ defense does one thing very well – stopping the run.

If this becomes a shootout between Brady and Wentz, well, I know who my money’s on.

Final Score Prediction: Bucs 31 – Colts 20

NFL Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-113) at BetOnline

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Buccaneers -3 (-113)
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Christian McCaffrey #22 of the Carolina Panthers reacts after a touchdown. Grant Halverson/Getty Images/AFP

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

We took advantage of the hype on Cam Newton starting last week and it paid off when we cashed with the Washington No Namers as 3 ½ point dogs that won the game outright, 27-21, as we predicted they would and came very close to picking the actual score (26-19).

But this time we will back the Cats because their defense will pressure Tua and create turnovers, providing its offense with excellent field position that will be turned into points – and plenty of them.

Final Score Prediction: Panthers 27 – Dolphins 16

NFL Pick: Panthers -1 ½ (-110) at Intertops

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Panthers -1 ½ (-110)
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Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

This would normally be an ideal spot to fade the Patriots due to their inflated value caused by the hype machine in overdrive regarding their recent spate of victories. And while that opportunity will eventually avail itself, it won’t come this week because the Titans are a team that I predicted would eventually self-destruct.

I can’t see them getting their act together on the Evil Genius’s turf and against an absolutely smokin’ New England defense.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 26 – Titans 13

NFL Pick: Patriots -6 ½ (-110) at Bovada

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Patriots -6 ½ (-110)
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

It looks like Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense is starting to hit its stride, right? They have gone 3-1 straight up and against the number over their last four games and have averaged 34.5 points per game. How are the Giants stopping this attack with that defense? They don’t.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 38 – Giants 22

NFL Pick: Eagles -3 (-125) at BetOnline

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Eagles -3 (-125)
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field

Is there a way both of these bums can lose? Neither offensive line protects its passer so it is essentially who can do more with less, Matt Ryan or Trevor Lawrence? I will go with the former as he has plenty of experience running for his life while Lawrence is still new to the game.

We should see loads of Ryan to Kyle Pitts who will be unstoppable against this Jags’ short zone defense. Lay the short price with the Falcons in your NFL picks.

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 29 – Jaguars 24

NFL Pick: Falcons -1 (-110) at BetOnline

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Falcons -1 (-110)
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Falcons' TE Kyle Pitts #8 should see plenty of passes thrown his way this week. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

New York Jets vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium

The line on this game has dropped from Houston -3 to -2 ½ and it doesn’t surprise us one iota. The sharps took a big ol’ bite out of that Jets +3 line and the chasers will get stuck with +2 ½ which is a huge move.

Nevertheless, we will back the flyboys in this one as the Texans just won their Super Bowl after the Titans imploded with five turnovers and lost, despite outgaining the Texans by a whopping 420 to 190 total yards margin. Expect a letdown from a lousy team. Anyone, including the Jets, would beat Houston this Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 18 – Texans 17

NFL Pick: Jets +2 ½ (+102) at Heritage Sports

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Jets +2 ½ (-102)
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 04:05 PM EST at Empower Field at Mile High

The Broncos have won three of the last four meetings between these teams and have had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for the Chargers’ invasion of Mile High.

Denver will win for two reasons, the first of which is their blitz packages will have Justin Herbert beggin’ for his binky. Second, I expect the rushing tandem of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon to grind their way up and down the field, moving the chains, opening up passing lanes for Teddy Bridgewater so he can make those short dinks and dunks that a game manager always has in his limited arsenal.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 27 – Chargers 24

NFL Pick: Broncos +3 (-113) at Heritage Sports

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Broncos +3 (-113)
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Rams' QB Matthew Stafford during a 28-16 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 9. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field

This game is the subject of this week’s Point/Counterpoint with Yours Truly and Doug Upstone. I am squarely on the side of the visitors in this one. These teams are fairly even assuming both sides are completely healthy but the Packers are a veritable MASH unit at this point.

Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a toe injury and a bunch of second and third-string backup linemen that will get him killed this Sunday with the likes of Aaron Donald and company pursuing him in the backfield. Add to that the Rams have had two weeks to prepare and get healthy. Back the Rams here.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 26 – Packers 24

NFL Pick: Rams -1 (-105) at Intertops

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Rams -1 (-105)
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Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 04:25 PM EST at Levi's Stadium

I have been a huge proponent of the Vikings this season even when they owned a sub .500 record. I was all over them last week in their 34-31 win over the Packers and I will do so again this week against the Niners. Minnesota should be able to run all over a pedestrian San Francisco run-stop unit, understanding that they have one of the best running backs in the game, Dalvin Cook, at their disposal.

The run will open up the pass for Kirk Cousins and the Vikes will do more damage through the air. Minny is 4-0 ATS over their last four road games as well. Me thinks the books have the wrong favorite in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 24 – 49ers 21

NFL Pick: Vikings +3 ½ (-118) at Heritage Sports

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Vikings +3 ½ (-118)
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Will Lamar Jackson be back this week for the Ravens? Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, November 28, 2021 - 08:20 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium

This is a game loaded with question marks. Will Lamar Jackson play, and if so, how healthy will he be? The same can be asked of Baker Mayfield. I believe Jackson will be the more fit of the two entering this contest and the Ravens have won and covered the last three meetings between these clubs. I wish we didn’t have to lay the hook, but we will, as we back the Ravens in this spot.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 27 – Browns 23

NFL Pick: Ravens -3 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Ravens -3 ½ (-108)
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Quarterback Taylor Heinicke #4 of the Washington Football Team has been slinging it lately. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Football Team

Monday, November 29, 2021 - 08:20 PM EST at FedExField

The Washington No Namers are ranked sixth against the run, allowing only 98.5 yards per game, and have the ability to limit a gimpy Russell Wilson from rolling out and moving the chains when his targets evaporate.

Neither team is good defending the pass but the way Taylor Heinicke, with his newly found swag, has been playing lately he should feast on this Hawks pass defense. I don’t believe Russell Wilson is nearly 100 percent and the entire Seahawks team has been a major letdown so let’s go with the team that is heating up instead of the one cooling down.

Final Score Prediction: Washington 26 – Seahawks 19

NFL Pick: Washington -1 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Washington -1 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.