NFL Pick: Four-Legged 6-Point Teaser (+270) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
It would be hard for the NFL to repeat how close last year’s Championship Sunday was, but three of the same four teams are in this season’s games. The AFC Championship Game is even exactly the same with the Cincinnati Bengals on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The San Francisco 49ers are also on the road again but taking on the Philadelphia Eagles this time.
Last year, the Chiefs blew a 21-3 lead and lost 27-24 in overtime. The 49ers blew a 17-7 fourth-quarter lead and lost 20-17 to the Rams. But this was just the sixth time in 52 seasons that both championship games were decided by 1-to-7 points.
Those close games are usually a good day for teaser picks, but for this year’s matchups, we would really love to see a 3-point outcome since the spread is smaller than 3 points in both games.
Only 12 of the 104 (11.5%) Conference Championship Games since 1970 have had a spread smaller than 3 points. Only twice before has it happened in the same season (1982 and 1997). However, 10 of those 12 games were still decided by 10-plus points, so a very small spread in a title game is no guarantee of a close finish.
With that in mind, we have our 6-point teaser picks for both the total and spread in each game this Sunday. Golden State residents, you can play these as singles or parlay one from each game together at many of the top California betting sites.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
These teams last met in Week 2 of the 2021 season when the 49ers pulled off a 17-11 road victory. The teams are considerably different now, but the 49ers come in on a 12-game winning streak. The Eagles are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 46 points.
Spread Teaser: 49ers +8.5
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s shortcomings in the playoffs have not been the result of being unprepared or coming out flat. He just cannot salt away a late lead to secure the win. Shanahan’s last three trips to the playoffs, including his role as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator in Super Bowl 51, have all ended with his team blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.
He did it in two Super Bowls and he did it in last year’s NFC Championship Game. His team never scored a single point in the fourth quarter of those games. Jimmy Garoppolo has received some criticism for those San Francisco losses, but now the 49ers have Brock Purdy, who could become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl. He faces the daunting task of taking on a Philadelphia pass defense that has 70 sacks this year.
This is the most talented offense the Eagles have faced this year. When these teams met last year, it was a 17-11 game, but the 49ers had touchdown drives of 97 and 92 yards. These coaching staffs are not overly familiar with one another, but Shanahan is still one of the best at coming up with offensive game plans.
The 49ers' defense is the best at limiting points and stopping the run, which should be a great combo against Philadelphia’s unique attack. The 49ers have not allowed a single 70-yard rusher this year while only five offenses have cracked 100 rushing yards on them.
Can Brock Purdy Handle It?
As long as Purdy can play it safe and avoid turnovers, he can survive this defense that feasts on opposing quarterbacks. If there is a weakness to the Eagles, it would be a rushing defense that is 24th in yards per carry and has allowed all but five teams to rush for 100 yards.
With so many choices in the backfield ranging from Christian McCaffrey to Elijah Mitchell to Deebo Samuel, the 49ers can keep the offense balanced and not force Purdy to try throwing against those corners. He also has some of the best YAC receivers in the game in Samuel and tight end George Kittle.
The 49ers have three losses by 9-plus points this year, but they were all early in the season. This team has what it takes to win on the road here, but we’ll settle for the teaser and see if Shanahan can hold the lead this time should he have another big one.
Total Teaser: Under 52
Both offenses are explosive, but these are arguably the two best defenses in the NFC this year. Dallas also was in that discussion, and we just watched the Cowboys and 49ers play a 19-12 game last week despite the fact they were the only teams averaging over 30 points per game since Week 7.
The defense often thrives this time of year, and it would not be a surprise at all to see this become another defensive struggle given the inexperience of Purdy and the fact that Jalen Hurts doesn’t always excel as a passer. The 49ers have good athletes to contain him as a runner too.
Hurts has five games where he did not pass for over 190 yards this year and six games where he averaged under 6.75 yards per pass attempt, including last week against the Giants.
This probably will have more scoring than the 17-11 game these teams played last year, but 52 is a big number for a championship game between two great defenses and young quarterbacks in their first title game.
They also both like to run the ball and are among the best in not turning it over, so this could be a game with limited possessions as long as third downs are being converted. Take the under for your NFL picks, because defense still does win championships.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
This line has jumped around like crazy because of the high-ankle sprain for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs were a 2.5-point favorite at the opening line, but we have already seen it go up to 2.5 in favor of the Bengals, and Bengals -1.5 looks to be where things are now at mid-week. The total is 47 points.
Spread Teaser: Chiefs +7.5
If you jumped on this game early and got a teaser line of Bengals +8.5 or Bengals +5, then you should feel content with that too. The Bengals have won 10 in a row, and are playing very well on both sides of the ball. The Bengals know what it takes to beat the Chiefs as well as anyone right now, and there is the Mahomes injury.
There is no way Mahomes will be 100% this Sunday, but we do not know if he’ll be a hobbled 50% player or if he’ll be 85% of the best quarterback in the NFL. We just have a very good inkling that he is going to play this game.
Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog, though this would only be the second time in his career he is a home underdog. The first was in Week 6 this year against Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bills won 24-20 on a late touchdown. If Mahomes loses, it usually is by a small margin:
- The Chiefs have not lost by more than 4 points in 31 straight games, the sixth-longest streak in NFL history.
- The 2022 Chiefs have led in the fourth quarter of every game this season, becoming just the ninth team since 1978 to do that in every game of a season.
- The Chiefs have had at least a fourth-quarter or overtime tie in 31 straight games.
- Chiefs +7.5 would have covered in 88-of-92 career starts for Mahomes.
Chiefs Will Put on a Fight
The Bengals have not won by more than 7 points in 12 of their last 15 games away from home. Last week’s 27-10 triumph in Buffalo was a superb performance, but the Bills looked incredibly flat from the start and do not have the experience of playing this Cincinnati team that Kansas City has.
The last three matchups have all been decided by 3 points with the Bengals coming out on top. Maybe they do it again, and maybe they even win by a touchdown this time. But the Chiefs will put up much more of a fight than the Bills, and they have enough talent and coaching smarts to give the Bengals a good game in Arrowhead.
The more this spread goes in Cincinnati’s favor, the better value it is to tease the Chiefs, so you may even want to see if you can wait to get it at Chiefs +8.5.
Total Teaser: Over 41
Like with the 49ers-Eagles, these teams can score at a high rate. The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring, though it is understandable to expect them to dip a little this week with the Mahomes injury. The Chiefs have scored at least 17 points in 29 straight games.
Unlike the 49ers-Eagles, these are not two elite defenses. The Bengals had a respectable season with the No. 8 defense in points per drive allowed, and they have rounded into championship form in the playoffs. The Chiefs are No. 21 in points per drive allowed, which is unlikely to lead to a Super Bowl win.
When these teams met in Week 13, the Bengals scored 27 points on eight drives, and that was even with a terrible fourth-and-1 play design, a dropped touchdown on a drive that ended in a field goal, and a final drive that was just about running out the clock. They left a double-digit number of points on the field that day.
With these two quarterbacks, you should take your chances that both teams can score 20 points, meaning someone is going to score more than 20 and take this over 41. It is a safer bet than going under 53 and hoping that the injury to Mahomes leads to one of the lowest-scoring games of his career.
Since 2018, the Chiefs have played 45 games against other playoff teams: 25 of those games hit 54 points (55.6%) and seven games finished under 41 points (15.6%). We’ll play the NFL odds and go over 41 here.
Teaser Picks
- 49ers +2.5 to +8.5
- 49ers vs. Eagles Under 46.5 to 52
- Chiefs +1.5 to +7.5
- Bengals vs. Chiefs Over 47 to 41
NFL Pick: Four-Legged 6-Point Teaser (+270) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
