NFL Conference Championship Games Picks Against the Spread: Will it be a Dog Day Afternoon?

profile image of Swinging.Johnson
063_1365273869-aspect-ratio-16-9
David Long #22 of the Rams celebrates scoring a touchdown with Donte' Deayon #21 and Jalen Ramsey #5. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Swinger went 2-2 against the spread in his NFL picks last week as the Bengals and 49ers covered the number and took home the cash.

However, the following day wasn’t nearly as kind, as the Bucs and Bills both lost in heartbreaking fashion. Let’s see what the man has for us this Sunday with the AFC and NFC titles on the line.

  • Swinger’s 2021-22 Pick All Record: 84-64 ATS (56.7 percent)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Betting Analysis

The Bengals are hot off the heels of a 19-16 stunner over the top-seeded Titans last week and find themselves where few pundits thought they would ever be – the AFC Championship.

Joe Burrow was dragged and quartered last week by a relentless Tennessee pass rush, getting sacked nine times, yet, still managed 348 passing yards while his top target, the immaculate Ja’Marr Chase, had five catches for 109 yards. Running back Joe Mixon was held in check but scored the only Cincinnati touchdown of the game.

However, the real story was the kid out of Florida, a fifth-round draft pick named Evan McPherson whose new moniker is Money. Kickers often go undrafted but every now and again a team will reach to take one who shows promise.

PLAY NOW: NFL Playoffs $1,000 Prop Bets Contest

McPherson was Bengals’ gamble and he has given the Cats a huge return on their investment as he was 4-for-4 including a game-winning 52 yarder with no time remaining that bounced the Titans out of the playoffs and punched the Bengals’ ticket to a date with the Chiefs this Sunday.

According to the NFL odds, the Chiefs are seven-point favorites. But earlier this week there was an outlier, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), who was hanging them at 7½.

Unfortunately, that number has dropped to 7 and is now in line with all of the other majors. So much for getting the magical hook but the truth be told, I think the Cats have a real shot at pulling another upset.

Think about it. The Bengals defeated the Chiefs, 34-31, less than a month ago with both young guns, Burrow and Mahomes, showcasing their sublime skills. Burrow torched the Chiefs’ secondary for a whopping 446 yards and four touchdowns while Mahomes struck for a pair of touchdowns and 259 yards.

MORE PICKS: Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game Picks and Odds Breakdown

In that game, Ja’Marr Chase caught 11 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns. He was immense, a force of nature that KC couldn’t stop.

And while we can surmise he will be double covered throughout the game and his production limited, what we should point out is that Kansas City’s strong safety, Tyrann Mathieu may miss this one due to the concussion protocols he is in, after getting injured in last Sunday victory over the Bills. Even if Mathieu does return, will he be 100 percent healthy?

Predict The Super Bowl Matchup & Winner For $250​

The Pick

Lastly, this is setting up as a trap game for the Chiefs. They are coming off of an exhausting 42-36 overtime win against the Bills and could be looking ahead to another Super Bowl appearance.

If they come outgassed, would it shock you? The Bengals are getting a generous 7 points and have the best running back on either team in Joe Mixon at their disposal. I see another shootout and an outright win for the Bengals at +280 at BetOnline. But grab the points – just in case!

Score Prediction: Bengals 34 – Chiefs 29

NFL Pick: Bengals +7 (-109) at BetOnline

BetOnline logo
Bengals +7 (-109)
Visit Site

NFL Pick: Over 54 (-115) at BetOnline

BetOnline logo
Over 54 (-115)
Visit Site


San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

Betting Analysis

The 49ers started the season 2-4, yet, here they are, in the NFC Championship facing a divisional rival they have beaten twice already this season. In their latest performance, they put the Green Bay Packers to sleep in a 13-10 defensive struggle that saw Jimmy Garoppolo go 11-for-19 and toss only 131 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.

Even the 49ers surging ground game was stymied as Elijah Mitchell only accounted for 53 yards on 17 carries.

VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR's Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day

But the San Francisco defense was once again the hero as they shut down the vaunted passing attack of Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps. The trick was to avoid the long ball and box the Packers into short passing routes, which they did to perfection.

Davante Adams and Aaron Jones each had nine catches apiece but were held to 90 and 129 yards respectively while both were shut out of the end zone.

As of this writing, we see the Rams installed as 3½ point home favorites across the board and it’s hard to argue with the top sportsbooks on this one.

We saw how this LA defense stymied Tom Brady throughout much of last week’s game only to allow the Bucs to roar back because Tom Brady is Tom Brady, and that’s what he does, but LA added several miscues to help with the Bucs’ rally.

The Pick

Jimmy G is no TB12 and I can’t imagine that an offense so stuck in neutral will be able to match touchdowns with Matthew Stafford and the LA juggernaut.

Stafford has had his share of issues this season but much of that has to do with chronic back pain that arrives on its own terms and doesn’t care if it’s on an NFL Sunday. But recently, Stafford’s mechanics have been on point and he is throwing effortlessly. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp is turning into a one-man-wrecking crew.

MORE PICKS: 49ers vs. Rams NFC Championship Game Preview and Best Bet

I see this as a relatively low-scoring affair with the Rams avenging their two losses to the Niners and getting an invitation to the league’s biggest game on their grandest stage- at SoFi Stadium no less - come February 13th.

Score Prediction: Rams 24 – 49ers 17

NFL Pick: Rams -3½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Rams -3½ (-108)
Visit Site

NFL Pick: Under 46 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Under 46 (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.