Lions vs. Giants NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Is New York Really This Good?

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Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants calls out instructions against the Houston Texans. Dustin Satloff/Getty Images/AFP.

The New York Giants are 7-2 and on a playoff trajectory but are they as good as their record suggests? Let’s check out the NFL odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

Lions Can Handle Close Games

Chicago’s Cole Kmet was on the receiving end of a 50-yard bomb from Justin Fields that the talented tight end hauled in for a 24-10 lead shortly before the final quarter last week against the Lions.

Scaling a 14-point lead with under 12 minutes left to play would normally be too daunting a challenge for the Lions to overcome. However, with a shocking 15-9 win over the Packers in their back pockets from the week before, Detroit proved to be up to the task and scored 21 points in the fourth quarter, including a 20-yard pick-six by Jeff Okudah, salting away a 31-30 victory as 3-point road dogs.

Lions’ head coach, Dan Campbell, said, "You want to learn to win in close games, you win in close games. That's two now. Once you've been in there and you start to figure out what you've got to do and the focus and the intensity and the detail and the hustle and everything that it takes to finish out a game, it's highly important."

Is Big Blue for Real?

New York checks in with a 7-2 record, second in the NFC East behind the Philadelphia Eagles. But is New York really this good or have they just gotten lucky?

Well, if we take a look at their schedule, they haven’t exactly faced the mettle of the league with their only win against a legitimate threat being their 24-20 victory over the Ravens on October 16th. Other than that, the Giants have defeated the Titans, Panthers, Bears, Packers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Neither the Titans nor the Packers are nearly as good as many believed they would be entering the season while the Panthers, Bears, Jags, and Texans are all games just waiting to be won on any decent team’s schedule.

In their last performance, the Giants let Saquon Barkley do his thing and he did just that, chewing up 152 yards against a beleaguered Houston run-stop unit and scoring a touchdown while Daniel Jones threw for 197 yards and a pair of TD strikes in New York’s 24-16 win over the Texans.

Lions vs. Giants: Pick and Prediction

In a trend that couldn’t be more useless, as it dates back to 2007, these teams have alternated covering over the last seven meetings. And if the pattern continues, the Lions should be the ATS winner in this game as the last time these teams met the Giants covered as 6 ½ point road dogs in a 31-26 loss to Detroit back in 2019.

The sharps are also on the Lions early as the Giants opened as 4-point favorites at the best sportsbooks but that number has tumbled to as low as -3 as of this Tuesday morning writing.

Let's Face the Facts

New York grinds out their victories because they utilize Saquon Barkley to his fullest degree in moving the sticks and chewing the clock. It’s a terrific strategy for a team that doesn’t have quick-strike potential through the air.

Although Detroit will be hard-pressed to stop Barkley with their 31st-ranked rushing defense, Jared Goff should have success through the air against a thoroughly pedestrian Giants’ pass defense.

I like the Lions’ chances of hanging and banging with the Giants because eventually New York will be exposed and it could happen this week. Look for Detroit to get the upset but take the points just in case.

Team Trends

  • Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
  • Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
  • Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Giants are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 11.

Total Trends

  • Under is 8-0 in the Giants’ last 8 games in November.
  • Under is 7-0 in the Giants’ last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 14-2-1 in the Giants’ last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games in Week 11.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Lions’ last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games in November.

Score Prediction: Lions 23 – Giants 20

NFL Pick: Lions +3 ½ (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Lions +3 ½ (-115)
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NFL Pick: Under 46 ½ (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Under 46 ½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.