Last Chance Value Picks for NFL Week 7

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Davis Mills #10 of the Houston Texans. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

This week’s NFL slate features a lot of favorites going up against a lot of poor teams. Six games on the NFL slate opened with the favorite being a seven-point favorite or more. In the last two weeks, favorites have also been winning a little bit more than usual, throwing off Vegas and the sportsbooks.

This week, the top-rated sportsbooks are hoping for a different outcome. Therefore, is the value on the underdogs or the favorites this week? Below, we’ll take a look at the NFL odds and a full analysis so that you can make the right last change value NFL pick.

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, October 24, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium

The Cardinals are the only undefeated team in the league and will get to face the Houston Texans who just haven’t been the same offensively since Tyrod Taylor went down. Taylor was expected back this week, however, he’s sitting out one more game before returning.

That means Davis Mills will get the start for Houston and he’ll have to go up against former Texans defensive end, J.J. Watt. The Cardinals have looked so much better defensively this season and should do a solid job against the Texans with Mills under center.

Meanwhile, Deandre Hopkins will also get to face his former team and should have a big day against a terrible Texans secondary. The Cardinals offense has improved even more with Zach Ertz being acquired and currently, Kyler Murray is playing like the MVP of the league right now.

In the first half, I’m looking at the Cardinals -10 at -105 and think there’s a ton of value there. I would expect the Cardinals to score on most possessions in this game and also believe the Cardinals' defensive line can get to Mills all game to force turnovers and pressure all game.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -10 First Half (-105) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Cardinals -10 First Half (-105) 
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, October 24, 2021 - 04:05 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium

The Eagles, as stated above, have lost Zach Ertz and while they haven’t conceded the season, it kind of feels like that’s the direction they’re going. Meanwhile, the Raiders are going to be without Jon Gruden and have an interim head coach at this very moment.

Both teams are scoring under four touchdowns per game and have defenses that have kept the passing game in check for the most part. Neither team is allowing more than 240 yards passing per game.

However, the Eagles were able to hold the Buccaneers to 28 points last week and defeated the Panthers, 21-18 the week before. The Raiders, on the other hand, proved the offense is still a problem against the Broncos, but that’s not really saying much against a Broncos team that has beat four teams with losing records.

For your NFL pick, Look for this game to go under the total of 50.5. It’s sitting at -130 and there’s tons of value there knowing how bad the Eagles' offense has been. Both defenses are allowing under 26 points per game and while both teams have been bad against the run, the Raiders are averaging under 80 yards rushing per game.

NFL Pick: Under 50.5 (-130) va BetOnline

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Under 50.5 (-130)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.