Last Chance Value Picks for the NFL Divisional Round

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Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills. Omar Rawlings/Getty Images/AFP

I’ve been eying a couple of spots in the NFL Playoffs this weekend. There’s still plenty of value and I’m ready to share the best NFL picks below. Let’s dig in!

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

Saturday, January 22, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at Nissan Stadium

The Titans opened up as a -2.5 point favorite and are now currently a -3.5 point favorite. After seeing this line movement, it’s enough for me to back the Bengals with the 3.5 points.

The Bengals simply have the better offense, even with the addition of Derrick Henry to the Titans roster. Cincinnati and Tennessee both struggle to protect their quarterback but overall, Burrow has been the better quarterback with a lot more consistent talent around him.

It’s been a bit difficult for Ryan Tannehill to navigate his wideouts this season and I get that. Tannehill was without A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, and Julio Jones for most of the season and still found a way to lead the Titans to the first seed in the AFC.

It’s extremely impressive and that deserves recognition, but the Titans' defense really isn't all that.

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Tennessee can absolutely get torched in the running game and the Titans have missed plenty of tackles this season. The Bengals, on the other hand, aren’t all that great against the run either on the defensive end, but will have the better pass rush that should be able to damage against a bad Titans pass protection unit.

The Titans have been the better secondary, but against Joe Burrow and his receivers, I’m not so sure that’ll be a big difference moving forward. So if you’re getting the Bengals at +3.5, there’s value on them. I don’t think the line will move anymore but if it does, I’d scoop up those big numbers before game time.

NFL Pick: Bengals +3.5 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bengals +3.5 (-110)
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 23, 2022 – 6:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

This isn’t the first time the Bills have played the Chiefs this season. Earlier this year, the Bills defeated the Chiefs, on the road, 38-20, and made the Chiefs look absolutely foolish in that game.

The Bills had a terrific defensive game plan and scored at will against a Kansas City defense that was really struggling at the time. 

The Chiefs have been much better defensively and really overall in the second half of the season. But the Bills are starting to hit their peak too and just dominated the New England Patriots for the second straight time.

The Chiefs have been really bad against the run this season and the Bills have been really great at running the football. I will say that the Bills aren’t all that great when it comes to run-blocking with their offensive line, but having Josh Allen under center will help running the football, even if it’s using scrambles in the passing game.

Kansas City is also weaker in coverage and doesn't nearly have the pass rush that the Bills have either. The Chiefs have the better offensive line, however, but ultimately, the Bills should be able to get more stops on the defensive end in this game.

And right now, the Bills are currently sitting at +2.5 at the NFL odds board. I’d scoop those numbers up now. By kick-off, the number will be down to +1.5.

NFL Pick: Bills +2 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Bills +2 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.