Last Chance Value Picks for the NFL Conference Championship Games

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Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers hands the ball to teammate Elijah Mitchell #25. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

There are only two games to choose from on Sunday’s slate as we approach the Conference Championship games. With so much money being bet on these games, sportsbooks are often very sharp when it comes to these games. Still, there are spots with some value, a couple of days before the games begin.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Each week, I’ve been adding the Bengals and in this article, it’ll be no different. With line movement going towards the Chiefs from -7 to -7.5, there’s value on the Bengals. Even if the Bengals lose by a touchdown, you’d still cover with the Bengals with a +7 number.

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Let’s say this game gets into overtime, there’s almost no way you could end up losing, unless the Chiefs score a field goal and then a game-winning touchdown, for example. Plus, let’s not forget that the Bengals already defeated the Chiefs earlier this season.

That game was at home and this one will be on the road, but the 34-31 win showed us that the Bengals are very capable of scoring against this Chiefs team. The Buffalo Bills, for example, also didn’t have much trouble against the Chiefs when it came to scoring and clinching long to-go situations.

The Bengals will allow sacks and Burrow will know exactly what grass tastes like after this game, but Burrow is able very capable of putting together big drives with situations that are just impossible to clinch.

Yet, Burrow does that. Neither defense has played elite this season. Both defenses have had their moments, but overall, this will be a Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow battle for the second time this season.

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I’m thinking the last score wins this game, so again, getting the Bengals at +7 is really nice, for your NFL picks. There’s value there, ultimately getting the Bengals to at least cover a one-possession game.

NFL Pick: Bengals +7 (-101) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bengals +7 (-101)
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

The total for the 49ers and Rams game dropped 1.5 points to 45.5. In the first game between these two rivals, the 49ers won, 31-10, which would’ve kept this game under the total. In the second game, the 49ers won 27-24 in overtime, and essentially, that game went over a total of 45.5.

The second game was in Week 18 while the first game was much earlier in the regular season. I’d expect this game to have more vibes like the Week 18 battle, with both teams fighting in a close game.

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The 49ers and Rams have played terrific defense, but overall, it seems like the 49ers always find a way to run on the Rams well. Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel could be in for a big day. Plus, the Rams have so many offensive weapons and torched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the offensive end in the first half.

Of course, the Rams tried every single way to lose that football game in the second half via turnovers, but Matthew Stafford didn’t throw an interception or have a turnover in that game. That was crucial for the Rams’ success. So while both defenses have played elite, both offenses can absolutely score enough points to get over the total.

NFL Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) with BetOnline

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Over 45.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.