Last Chance Value Picks for Super Bowl LVI (Archive)
It’s almost game-time! Super Bowl LVI is only days away and we have seen many of the prop lines move to one degree or another. Now that the big game is approaching and we have had time to contemplate our bets, let’s look at taking one last bite at the apple.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
The Main Event
As of this writing, the NFL odds on Super Bowl 56 are rock steady with virtually all of the best online sportsbooks dealing Rams -4 and a total of 48 ½ as we enter the weekend. According to the numbers at Bookmakers Review, 54 percent of the betting is on LA versus 46 for Cincinnati while 53 percent of the betting is under the posted total versus 47 percent on over.
The moneyline deviates just a bit but the consensus is Rams -200/+170 with a reported 73 percent of the moneyline wagers on Los Angeles. The conventional wisdom is that paying 2-to-1 on the Rams winning outright is worth the price considering it is eliminating three critical numbers; 4, 3 ½, and 3. We too are going moneyline in our NFL picks with the “home” favorite.
Super Bowl LVI Pick: Rams ML (-196) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Super Bowl LVI Pick: Under 48 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Opening Kickoff Return/Touchback
- Return +120
- Touchback -150
We don’t normally advise betting a compromised number after the steam has chased it away. As a matter of fact, we advocate going the other way and getting either an enhanced point spread or better odds.
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But we are making an exception in this case because this seemingly insignificant prop has been bet down from Touchback -210 to where it stands now at -150. And the reason being is that it will likely fall even further, so if we pounce now then relatively speaking, we are getting a good number.
Therefore, getting Return +120 instead of around -120, where it could end up at kickoff, is a good value. And right about now, you are undoubtedly wondering what all the fuss is about and why is this prop getting so much attention?
MORE PICKS: Rams vs. Bengals Early Super Bowl LVI Prop Bets That Caught Our Eye
Well, if we take a look at history, we can see that 26 of the last 28 opening kickoffs in the Super Bowl have been returned. And the only two cases in which touchbacks did occur were in domed stadiums. And yes, SoFi Stadium is domed but it also has a retractable roof which is likely to be opened due to the anticipated 70’s and sunny weather in LA on Sunday.
We should also note that both kickers, Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson and LA’s Matt Gay, were in the middle of the pack in terms of touchback percentage at 60.4 and 63.7 percent, respectively.
Add to that the adrenaline rush of fielding the opening kick on the world’s biggest stage and it would take plenty of restraint by even the most conservative special teams’ player to take a knee in the end zone.
Super Bowl LVI Pick: Opening Kickoff Will Have a Return (+120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Super Bowl MVP
There are a couple of players whose odds have risen since the openers and should be worthy of your consideration. But remember, whenever we bet a prop, it has to fit our narrative of the game.
If you believe the Rams will win, as I do, then betting anyone wearing a Bengals uniform would be ludicrous considering only one player from a losing team has ever been named Super Bowl MVP. That happened way back in 1971 at Super Bowl V when Dallas linebacker, Chuck Howley, captured the award in a 19-16 loss to the Baltimore Colts.
Therefore, if you feel the Bengals will get the job done then consider the rising odds on Joe Burrow who opened at +140 and is now +235. Winning quarterbacks are the logical choice to cop the award and would it surprise anyone if Joe Cool capped off an extraordinary sophomore campaign with a Super Bowl Trophy and an MVP Award?
MORE PICKS: Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl LVI Early Favorites to Win MVP
However, if you are in the Rams camp then you might want to consider a long shot in Odell Beckham Jr. (+2800) because the double teams and press coverage will be focused squarely on Cooper Kupp. This will free up OBJ who has experienced a career renaissance in Los Angeles.
Sure, Matthew Stafford is the likely winner if LA emerges victorious but +125 is not moving the needle for me. Let’s get that +2800 with OBJ.
Super Bowl LVI Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. to Win MVP (+2800) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.