Last Chance Value Picks for NFL Week 6

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Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans. Sam Greenwood/Getty Images/AFP

The football gods finally said enough was enough and took us down a notch on free picks for this article last week. The good news, we are still 11-4 and look to get back on the winning track. In terms of the entire regular season, we are now at the one-third point after Monday.

With a shortened slate starting this week and for many ahead, our options are curtailed but the savvy sports bettors combing through the NFL odds will still find useful value. This is what we hoped we did for you this week for NFL picks.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, October 17 – 1:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium

This week, it looks like sharp money is backing Minnesota to win on the road as the Vikings have been flipped from +1 to -2.5. What is the telltale sign, just over 50 percent of tickets written are on Minnesota, but nearly 70 percent of the money is on the Vikings?

In some circles, that is an automatic play on the Vikes. However, we don’t travel in normal circles. While we respect wise guy money, we know they are not always right and will beg to differ on this NFC ballgame. We, like many, are no Sam Darnold fans, yet, we think he was not quite as good as he looked to start the season or as bad as he’s been the last two games.

This is Minnesota’s first away game in a month; thus, they might be rusty away from the comforts of home for so long. And let’s face it, they could easily be 1-4 after a fortunate win last week against Detroit. Keep in mind, the Vikings are 6-19 ATS in road games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with Carolina 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home. In our opinion, the value has shifted to the home underdog.

NFL Pick: Panthers +2.5 (-110) with YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)

Panthers +2.5 (-110)
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, October 17 - 4:05 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

For all the national talk about the Cleveland Browns, they are 3-2 on the season and are tied with Cincinnati, one game behind Baltimore in the AFC North. On the other hand, Arizona continues to fly under the radar as the last unbeaten team in the NFL.

One could make the argument that the Cardinals are not as good as their record is by how the sportsbooks have put out a line on this matchup with Arizona a 3.5-point away underdog. That is on the surface a potentially valid point.

Yet, let’s scratch below the surface. The Browns could easily be 5-0 themselves but have blown four-quarter leads to Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers. Doesn’t that tell you something about Cleveland's inability to put away games?

Arizona has gone on the road to Tennessee and the L.A. Rams and whipped them by 25 and 17 points respectively. Impressive right? We are not saying the wrong team is favored, just that most of the numbers on offense and defense favor the Cards, which have proven they can win on the road.

NFL Pick: Cardinals +3.5 (-110) with YouWager

Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
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Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans

Monday, October 18, 8:15 PM EDT at Nissan Stadium

In looking back, it’s hard to believe Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh in the season opener. Since then, the Bills are 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by an astounding 28.7 PPG. Bettors are very encouraged Josh Allen and the company will keep it going in the Music City, as Buffalo backers have taken their choice from -3 to -5.5, with over 80% on tickets and money.

While some might consider the Bills could be flat emotionally after drubbing Kansas City, no doubt coach Sean McDermott reminded his squad they lost 42-16 at Tennessee last year. Though we are not questioning who the better team is, if the stronger club always won, we could go back to local bookies having inflated lines and we wouldn’t need sports betting apps.

The Titans are still a treacherous opponent with QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. Tennessee is always capable of a breakout performance and if Allen is not sharp and makes few poor decisions, the Titans will hang around and send Buffalo shuffling back home with an 8-20 ATS mark after four or more consecutive wins.  

NFL Pick: Titans +5.5 (-110) with YouWager

Titans +5.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.