Jets vs. Patriots NFL Week 11 Top Picks: New York Looking To Avenge Week 8’s Loss

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Zach Wilson #2 of the New York Jets runs with the ball as Devin McCourty #32 of the New England Patriots defends. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

We’ve got an AFC East battle between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots.

With the Bills losing in dramatic fashion this past weekend, the division is suddenly wide open.

The Jets will be looking to avenge the first matchup against the Patriots, so expect the intensity in this one to be ramped up with both teams off a bye.

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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

Jets Looking To Make a Statement

The Jets had a chance to make a statement in their Week matchup against the Patriots. Instead, they ended up sending the wrong kind of message as they played their worst game of the season with Zach Wilson at quarterback. That’s the only game the Jets have lost since Week 3, so expect them to have revenge on their minds.

They will also have the division lead on their minds with the AFC East looking wide open all of a sudden.

The line for this game opened at New England at -4.5 and has been steamed down to -3 at the NFL odds. Even with that new number, I still like the Jets who I believe are live dogs in this spot.

These aren’t the same old Jets and I think their defense has to be in the conversation for the best in the league so far this season. Their coverage has been elite which has had a ton of support from the pass rush. That combination is the perfect recipe for success in this pass-heavy league.

The Jets' offense should play much better in the rematch with the bye week to prepare. The one thing that the Patriots do well is defend against the pass with one of the best secondaries in the league.

Patriots Better Than Expected

This Patriots squad is tough to figure out, which is what makes this line so tricky. Are they the team that has had 4 impressive wins in their last 5 games or are they the team that got blown out in that one loss by the terrible Chicago Bears? They’re probably somewhere in between and they will fancy their chances against the Jets at home.

I don’t like the idea of laying points with the Patriots in any spot, to be honest, and I really think the Jets' defense will give this team serious problems.

The Patriots' offense is below average, to be polite, while the Jets' defense is the strength of their team.

Final Picks

The total for this game is very low at 38.5, down slightly from 39.5 which is where it opened. I’m actually going to be contrarian here and take the Over for our NFL picks.

That’s a very low total for an NFL game and the Patriots find ways to put points on the odds board almost every week.

As pedestrian as their offense can look at times, they average 22.6 points per game which is good for 14th in the league. I also think the Jets play significantly better on offense compared to the previous matchup which will take the total over.

This matchup means a lot to both teams and I like that both are coming off a buy.

My official plays are Jets +3 and Over 38.5 at the best sportsbooks.

NFL Pick: Jets +3 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Jets +3 (-105)
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NFL Pick: Over 38.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Over 38.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.