Jaguars vs. Chiefs NFL Week 10 Top Picks: Look for Spark on Offense

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Travis Etienne Jr. #1 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs with the ball whilst Duron Harmon #30 of the Las Vegas Raiders attempts the tackle. Eric Espada/Getty Images/AFP.

The Kansas City Chiefs continued their inconsistent year, escaping with an overtime win over the Titans on Sunday Night Football. The win allowed them to hold onto 1st place in the AFC West at 6-2, but the team expected to be one of the favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl has a surprising loss to the Colts, as well as razor-thin wins over the Chargers and Raiders.

Kansas City hasn’t been its usual offensive juggernaut. The Chiefs scored 20 points in overtime against Tennessee, the 3rd time this year they’ve been held to 20 or fewer.

Next up is a Jacksonville Jaguars team that finally got things on track. The Jags rebounded from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Raiders and snap a five-game losing streak.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Improved Squad

The Jaguars looked like they were going to be one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season. They won 2 of their first 3 and quarterback Trevor Lawrence looked much improved in his 2nd season.

Then, the five-game skid hit and Jacksonville suffered a series of frustrating near misses. All 6 losses were by one-score margins, and the team was 0-6 in close games before beating Las Vegas, 27-20, on Sunday. The Jags also were tied or led in 5 of their 6 defeats.

Now, Jacksonville heads to Kansas City where it hasn’t won since 2007. The Jaguars will need some good injury news on safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who entered the concussion protocol in the second half. They also saw receiver Evan Engram go down with a back injury, although he was able to return to Sunday’s game.

The Jaguars already got good injury news on return man Jamal Agnew, who played on Sunday for the first time in 3 games. He showed no signs of the knee injury that sidelined him, turning in a 52-yard return that set up a touchdown.

Lawrence also showed flashes of the quarterback the Jaguars hoped they got with the top pick in the 2021 draft. After a rough day, 2 weeks ago, he completed 12 straight passes at one point on Sunday and had a career-high in rushing yards.

Up and Down

Sunday’s win over Tennessee was a microcosm of the season for the Chiefs’ offense. At times, it looked like one of the NFL’s elite units. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and scrambled for 63 yards and a score, including the touchdown and conversion that sent the game to overtime.

Chiefs running backs managed just 14 yards on 13 carries, however, forcing Mahomes to put the team on his shoulders. He was 43 of 68 passing. It also allowed Tennessee to sell out on the pass rush, sacking him 4 times and just missing, chasing him out of the pocket, on many of his scrambles.

There were also signs of trouble in the other facets of the game. The defense seemed unable to contain Titans running back Derrick Henry, and kicker Harrison Butker missed 2 field goal attempts.

The Chiefs’ defense got a boost from the return of rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie, who looked promising before suffering an injury in Week 1. He returned from the hamstring injury after missing 6 weeks and looked just as good as he did before going down in the first game.

On the season, he’s shut down the receiver he’s covering. His man has been targeted just twice in 45 passing plays on the year, with no catches.

Final Picks

Betting on the Chiefs means you’re paying a premium for past performance and name recognition.

The line on the Titans game last week was unusually high at the best sportsbooks and people who took the Chiefs ended up regretting it. This week is shaping up the same way for our NFL picks.

Kansas City should be favored, but not by nearly double digits. Following the NFL odds, look for Jacksonville to cover that in a game that could be short on points and the steep moneyline makes the outright win worth a flier too.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Jaguars +9.5 (-108)
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NFL Pick: Jaguars ML (+367) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Jaguars ML (+367)
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NFL Pick: Under 50.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Under 50.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.