When the schedule came out and all of us looked at all the prime-time games like those on Thanksgiving, at least two of them looked like turkeys, like Buffalo vs. Detroit and the New York Giants vs. Dallas.
As it turns out, those two games are now possibly far more entertaining. Our focus will be on the afternoon matchup in the NFC East, with Dallas and Giants tied and the current two-best wild card teams in their conference.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 24, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at AT&T Stadium
What to Expect from the Giants
With two ugly losses in their last three outings, are the Giants coming back to preseason expectations? New York committed a season-high three turnovers, with quarterback Daniel Jones tossing two interceptions on Sunday.
Big Blue is going to go as far as Saquon Barkley can take them, which means the offensive line has to control the line of scrimmage. Against both the Seahawks and Lions, the offensive line got no push and they were held to 39 yards (2.0 yards a carry) without Daniel Jones 50 yards on the ground versus Detroit.
Jones is not a guy that can just stay in the pocket and throw 50 times. Barkley has to help move the chains and Jones can be effective in the play-action pass offense. If that is all the G-Men could do against Detroit’s 31st-ranked run defense, that doesn’t bode well against Dallas.
To beat Dallas, New York has to get Barkley going in the run-and-pass game and the defense has to be better than 6-for-10 on third down when the game against the Lions was still in doubt.
What to Expect from the Cowboys
Dallas showed that the giveaway loss to Green Bay truly mattered to them and they went right back into the upper Midwest and sunk the Vikings 40-3 in devastating fashion.
Given the circumstances, that was the Cowboys' most complete game of the season and showed the potential of this team.
The Dallas defense bottled up Minnesota’s high-powered offense, holding them to 183 yards and sacking their quarterbacks seven times along with countless pressures.
Offensively, Dak Prescott and company exposed every weakness of the Vikings’ defense. They ran that ball well as they had all season and have a fantastic duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. And if they can continue to use Pollard and Elliott more in the short passing offense along with what they have on the perimeter, the sky's the limit for Mike McCarthy's squad.
Who Covers the Spread?
The NFL odds at sportsbooks after both teams played Sunday was the Cowboys at -7. By Monday morning, it was up to -8.5 with a total of 44.5.
The Cowboys won the previous matchup this season in New Jersey 23-16 as a one-point underdog and this tells us McCarthy’s crew is better than the Giants today compared to the last battle. Chances are New York won’t play as badly as they did Sunday and Dallas won’t be as invincible looking.
Giants coach Brian Daboll said his team suffered six injuries and he was uncertain if any of those players could recover to play Thursday.
That definitely is something to follow before making NFL picks, but we wouldn’t be shocked by a big effort from New York to cover the spread at more than a touchdown.
What Is the Right Side for Totals?
The only way New York stays in the skirmish is by playing fantastic defense. They did a very good job in the last meeting holding Dallas to 325 yards.
With the Giants 10-2 Under avenging a loss and when we dig further, 7-0 Under if the setback was by seven points or less, the G-Men fall to third place in the division.
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
What Prop Bets Appear Safe?
We have a number of candidates for an anytime touchdown and they include Barkley, Elliott, and Pollard. Our first choice would be Elliott, but check the odds on him and Pollard and determine the best value at the best sportsbooks.
Though CeeDee Lamb makes sense for longer shot on a TD or receiving yards, we can see value with Noah Brown for yardage receiving as New York looks to stop Lamb.
Lastly, check the betting odds on Jones for an interception and ponder the Over.
NFL Prop Pick: Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-122) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-148) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Noah Brown Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at BetOnline
NFL Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-117) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.