Falcons vs. Dolphins Free NFL Week 7 Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Quarterback Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes the ball. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

The Atlanta Falcons (2-3) return from their bye week for a road game at Hard Rock Stadium. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins (1-5), return home after a close loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Can the Dolphins finally bounce back this season or will Atlanta continue their winning momentum?  Below, we’ll take a look at the early NFL odds and best sportsbooks to bet with.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, October 24, 2021 – 1:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium

The Falcons entered Week 5 as a 3-point favorite and continue to be the favored team for this matchup. As for the Dolphins, they were a 1.5-point favorite in Week 6 over the Jags and are a slight underdog this time. According to Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), Atlanta is a 2.5-point favorite over Miami with the over/under set at 47.5.

The Matchup

The Falcons are coming off a long week of rest after they took down the New York Jets 27-20 in London, England. It was a game where fans finally saw their unicorn, Kyle Pitts, finally pop off. The Falcons’ fourth-overall pick finished the day with 119 receiving yards and his first NFL career touchdown in the team’s 27-20 victory across the pond.

Atlanta’s offense currently sits at  22nd in scoring and 20th in yards per game, but the defense is not looking too hot. So far this season, they’ve allowed the second-most points per game and have given up 11 TD passes in coverage through five games.

Kyle Pitts #8 of the Atlanta Falcons. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

Matt Ryan still looks elite at QB and is completing 69.1 percent of his passes for 1,332 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions so far this season. Tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Cordarrelle Patterson have combined for 603 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

The Falcons should be getting Calvin Ridley who has 27 receptions and one score. On the ground, Atlanta is averaging 91 yards a game with Mike Davis leading the way with 204 yards and one touchdown. On defense, Atlanta is allowing 29.6 points and 352.6 yards per game. 

The Dolphins are not any better as they just dropped their fifth straight game to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, which marked Urban Meyer’s first win as an NFL head coach. Miami is near the totem pole on both sides of the ball and ranks 29th in points per game, 29th in points allowed per game, and 30th in yards on offense and defense.

Miami’s young quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has not looked so hot this season. He is completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 544 yards and three touchdowns. He also has two interceptions. Tight end Mike Gesicki and rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle have combined for 643 receiving yards and four TDs. On the ground, Miami is averaging 71.5 yards per contest and Myles Gaskin leads with 176 yards on 39 carries. The defense has allowed 29.5 points and 417.8 yards per game so far this season.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins. (Photo by Adam Glanzman / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)

Prediction

It’s obvious that the Falcons are the better team on paper here. They also enter this matchup coming off of plenty of rest after playing in London. It’s a different story for Miami, who really needs this win but they could still be trying to catch up on sleep after a 5-hour time change and no bye week.

The Falcons seem to finally have the chemistry flowing on offense. Their defense is something to be concerned about here as Miami has more weapons than a recent team they’ve played, but I’m taking the well-rested Falcons team with a veteran QB. 

NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-108) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.