Falcons vs. Panthers NFL Week 10 TNF Best Bets: Atlanta Seeks Divisional Lead on Thursday Night

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Marcus Mariota #1 of the Atlanta Falcons is chases by Michael Davis #43 of the Los Angeles Chargers. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP.

The Atlanta Falcons are just 4-5 but that won’t stop them from sitting atop the woeful NFC South if they defeat the Panthers on Thursday night.

Let’s check out the NFL odds as we discuss this matchup and look to keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

Thursday, November 10, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta broke out to a 10-0 first-quarter lead last week but, unfortunately, there were three more quarters to play and they ended with a 20-17 loss to the Chargers courtesy of a 37-yard field goal by a rookie kicker with no time remaining.

However, the game nearly took a Falcons’ twist as LA’s Austin Ekeler fumbled the ball with 34 seconds left in the game and it was scooped by defensive lineman Ta'Quon Graham. However, Graham fumbled the ball as well and it was ultimately recovered by the Chargers on the Falcon’s 43-yard line which led to the game-winning field goal a few plays later.

"My teammates tell me it's OK, but I'm probably the hardest on myself, so I should've held onto the ball," Graham said. "Probably should've fell on it. Probably should've gotten out of bounds. All of the above, so now I have to move on from here."

Although Marcus Mariota had only 129 passing yards for the day, the Falcons' ground attack was clicking on all cylinders. Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier led the way with 99 of the team’s 201 rushing yards while Cordarrelle Patterson, just back from a four-game stint on the sidelines due to knee surgery, had 2 touchdowns.

Panthers Lose a Cat Fight

If you bet Carolina plus the touchdown head start against the Bengals last week, then you have my condolences. The Panthers were never in the game, trailing 35-0 at the half. But Cincinnati either lost interest or Baker Mayfield was the spark Carolina needed after replacing P.J. Walker as they avoided total humiliation and left the Queen City with a 42-21 defeat.

Joe Mixon shredded the Panthers' defensive line and scored a franchise-record 5 rushing touchdowns and added 153 yards before he was pulled from the game in the third quarter for backup Brandon Allen.

"We couldn't get anything going offensively and we couldn't get off the field defensively," said interim coach Steve Wilks, who replaced Matt Rhule after he was fired last month. "That's on me."

Falcons vs. Panthers: Game Prediction

It was less than 2 weeks ago when these teams last met and the Falcons claimed a 37-34 overtime victory in Atlanta.

It took a last gasp by the Panthers to tie the game when P.J. Walker launched a 62-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Moore with only 12 seconds remaining to knot the game at 34 before the extra point was missed sending the game into OT. Younghoe Koo would subsequently drill a 41-yard field goal in overtime to capture the hard-fought victory for the Falcons.

We don’t have to look very far to see what we have in this matchup. These 2 squads are evenly matched with one major change working in the Panthers' favor: the venue. This one will go down at Bank of America Stadium where the Cats are 2-3 straight-up and against the spread. Yet, we should also note it is where the Panthers trounced the Bucs 3 weeks ago to the tune of a 21-3 victory.

Although coach Steve Wilks has not yet named a starter, the Panthers now have several options at their disposal with the return of Sam Darnold off of IR and a solid effort by Baker Mayfield in tossing 2 touchdowns and energizing what was a lackluster offense under Walker’s command last week.

Panthers' Passing Game Advantage

The Falcons have a statistical edge in the ground game while the Panthers have a slight advantage in the passing game.

However, I am willing to wager that either Mayfield or Darnold is in the pocket on Thursday and I am hoping it’s the former. Baker Mayfield will bring this lethargic passing attack back and if we recall the last time these teams met, D'Onta Foreman had 118 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns which gives us hope for the run setting up the pass.

Total Trends

  • Under is 6-0 in the Falcons’ last 6 Thursday games.
  • Under is 7-0 in the Falcons’ last 7 games in Week 10.
  • Under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings in Carolina between these teams.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Panthers; last 5 games following an ATS loss.
  • Under is 9-3 in Panthers; last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-3 in Panthers; last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Final Picks

I am expecting a relatively low-scoring affair and an outright Panthers victory… but we’ll take the points at the best sportsbooks just in case.

Score Prediction: Panthers 20 - Falcons 17

NFL Pick: Panthers +2.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Panthers +2.5 (-108)
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NFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 43 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.