Falcons vs. Bills Free NFL Week 17 Picks and Odds Breakdown

Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images/AFP.

The Atlanta Falcons (7-8) picked up their first home win of the season against the Detroit Lions and will try to keep the mojo going on the road at Buffalo. As for the Bills (9-6), they crushed to New England Patriots and will look to do the same to the Falcons. 

Can the Falcons keep their playoff hopes alive with an upset victory? Below, we’ll take a look at the early NFL odds and best sportsbook to bet with. 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, January 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium

The Atlanta Falcons entered Week 16 as 6.5-point favorites and are still getting the points for this matchup. As for the Bills, they were 1.5-point underdogs against the Patriots and are now the favored team this week. According to Bovada, Buffalo is a 14.5-point favorite over Atlanta with the over/under at 44.5.

The Matchup

The Falcons have been back and forth with wins and losses all season long, only winning one at home which came just last week as they took down the Lions, 20-16. However, if it wasn’t for Foyesade Oluokun’s interception in the red zone, they likely would have chalked up another “L.” The Falcons have been playing sloppy ball every chance they get, so they owe Oluokun for that win.

It’s Week 17 and their offensive line is still struggling up against opposing teams and let Matt Ryan get sacked three times on one drive. While their passing game is weak due to reliable target options, their rushing attack isn’t much better, as they rank 31st across the league. And on the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta is giving up 26.7 points and 364.9 yards per game.

The Bills got the revenge they were looking for against New England and beat them 33-21. QB Josh Allen is currently on a hot streak and recorded 379 total yards and passed for 3 scores while wideout Isaiah McKenzie snagged a career-high 11 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. And their defense, who is allowing 17.6 points and 287.9 yards per game, came up with stops when they were needed.

Buffalo has now won four of their last six games, scoring 21,31, and 33 points in their most recent matchups. They are still on the hunt for an AFC playoff spot, so they’ll mean business against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Falcons have split their last six games and need a miracle to clinch a Wild Card spot. 


This should be an easy game for the Buffalo Bills, who have the third-best scoring offense and defense as of Week 17, to win. As for Atlanta, who ranks near the bottom in almost every category, will need to bring their A-game. And so far this season, they have not been able to do that against an actual good NFL team.

What might save them, however, is Sunday’s weather. It’s going to be cold, windy, and snowing in Orchard Park, New York. The Falcons have a better chance of keeping up in the bad weather, but that doesn’t mean they’ll pick up a win for our NFL picks

NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons +14.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Atlanta Falcons +14.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.