After what 99.9999 percent of the football world considered to be the most amazing Divisional Round in the history of the NFL, some square bettors would try to argue that a couple of the games didn’t “live up to expectations” just because they were low scoring…
Crazy, I know! But it is that kind of stupidity and ignorance that we, real football fans, can capitalize on when we handicap the Conference Championship games for this Sunday.
So join along for the ride as we look to bounce back from our 1-2 record from last week after both the Titans and the under in the Chiefs and Bills game failed to come through.
- Editors’ Picks ATS 2021-22 Record: 12-9
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The Sunday Funday action begins at Arrowhead at 3:00 PM EST and I can't wait for this game!
Two of our picks for this week will be riding on this matchup so let's just get right into it. I think that the Chiefs will dominate the Bengals in this one which in turn will lead to a low-scoring game.
I know that the Chiefs traveled to Cincinnati in Week 17 and lost 31-34 in what will be remembered as the Ja'Marr Chase game, as he racked 266 receiving yards and set fire to the entire KC secondary.
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On top of that, the offensive display of the Chiefs against the Bills, last week, has everyone believing that KC's high octane offense is back.
The result? The total went from opening at around 50.5 to 54.5 in a matter of days. Now, I'm no genius but I would rather trust the number set by the top sportsbooks and take four points for free than trusting the squares.
Having said that, this isn't just a play to fade the public. If you go back and watch the tape of the first game you'll be reminded that KC was blowing out the Bengals 28 to 17 at halftime.
Cincy adjusted and realized that the secret to winning was to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field and so they went on to limit the Chiefs to only three points in the second half.
This means that they'll try to rely more on RB Joe Mixon, which leads us to the second reason for liking the under.
Against the Titans, last week, QB Joe Burrow was sacked nine times (yup, the same amount of times that Ferris Bueller skipped school during his senior year) and while he showed why he will be one of the best playmakers in years to come, the Chiefs defensive line is ferocious.
On top of that, Chris Jones will be playing in this game, after missing round 1 in the Queen City. Will the Bengals O-line be able to open up lanes for Mixon or protect Burrow? I highly doubt it.
I also expect the Chiefs and DC, Steve Spagnuolo, to look at the tape from the Titans game and realize they have to double Chase 24/7 and allow Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins to beat them. While it is true that Tyrann Mathieu could miss this game, expect KC to adjust accordingly if the Honey Badger can't go.
Give me the better QB, the better coach, the better OL-DL matchup and the home-field advantage for a 30-17 final score in favor of the Chiefs. Having said that, take a look at the under for the Bengals’ team total and take it if you get plus money.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
The 49ers just refuse to go away. Like my colleague from BMR, Swinging Johnson would say, "they're gritty".
Now we get Act III of this season's 49ers vs. Rams and the seventh edition of the McVay-Shanahan rivalry, with the Rams’ HC looking for his first W against his former coworker.
While I was watching the Niners dominate my Packers, there's one image that stuck with me. On a Niners run play, Shanahan had a designed block for LT Trent Williams which he used to, literally, act as a human wrecking ball against GB's D-line.
If you are on the fence about the side for this game, find out if he'll be 100 percent ready to go with his ankle on Sunday. He's that important.
As for me, I'm looking at the total once again. If you follow this column you'll remember we took the under when these two teams met in Week 18 and lost after a 17 point comeback from Jimmy Gritty to send the game into OT, which made us miss our NFL pick by less than a field goal.
Having said that, I believe that the pace of the game will favor the under. Kyle Shanahan knows that the way to cancel out the Rams D-line is running the ball straight at Von Miller, so look for Deebo Samuel to wreak havoc once again.
On the other hand, the Rams might want to do the same and look for them to feature more of Sony Michel this week.
Remember that San Francisco's defensive line is one of the best, so I'm sure that McVay will try to limit Matthew Stafford's propensity to turn over the ball, especially if Niners DC, DeMeco Ryans, finds a way to cancel out Cooper Kupp.
The Rams defense ain't too shabby either, so let's ride with the under and avenge our Week 18 pick!
- Jobu's 2021-22 NFL Record: 4-3
If it feels like the 49ers had the evil spirits on their side during the snowstorm that hit Lambeau Field last Saturday, it probably has something to do with our cigar smoking friend.
Jobu often says that there is nothing sweater than a repeater so he's riding the Niners again this week.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.