Editors’ Picks for This Weekend (January 8-9)

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Damien Harris #37 of the New England Patriots runs against the Miami Dolphins. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

Alright, alright, alright. It’s the last week of the regular season but also the first time in NFL history that every team will play a seventeenth game, prior to the playoffs.

If you picked up on my movie reference in the last paragraph then you’re probably old enough to remember a simpler time in the League before Thursday Night Football existed and became the staple it is today (being mildly sarcastic here, c’mon!).

But I’m all up for these improvements to the game we love to bet on so, without further ado,  let’s break down some NFL odds. On this special occasion, we have a Saturday game and a couple of Sunday matchups to get to, in order to improve our 8-4 record ATS after coming off our first losing week (1-2 ATS Week 17).

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Saturday, January 08, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at Empower Field at Mile High

Betting Analysis

Before losing to the Bengals last week, the Chiefs had high hopes of clinching the #1 seed in the AFC, as they arrived in Cincy riding an 8-game winning streak.

Now, those hopes hang on the odds of the Texans beating the Titans outright on Sunday, which is unlikely but, if KC does win this game, they can secure at least two games at Arrowhead during the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Broncos have nothing to play for. This should be the last time we see either Drew Lock or head coach Vic Fangio in Denver.

MORE PICKS: Chiefs vs. Broncos NFL Week 18 Odds, Preview and Pick

On top of that, the Broncos secondary is depleted due to COVID protocols and injuries so it's going to be hard for them to stick around in this one, despite the 10 point cushion. Hell, I don't really see them scoring 10 points altogether.

Now, as the great NFL insider Michael Lombardi reminded us recently, we have to keep in mind that Kansas City is not the best team at covering the spread... full game at least. KC ranks 13th ATS (8-8). During first halves, that number improves to 9-7.

The Pick

But, did you know that in first quarters they are the second-best team in the league at a whopping 11-5 ATS? Add to the mix the fact that Denver is the third-worst team in that department and we got ourselves a Terminator pick!

With the line set at -3 at most of the top sportsbooks, lay it, like it and cash your ticket early!

Terminator NFL Pick: Chiefs 1st Quarter -3 (-109) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

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Chiefs 1st Quarter -3 (-109)
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, January 09, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

Betting Analysis

Sometimes we like to overthink our picks, but this one is simple: I'm backing the Patriots here. What won't be easy is the matchup in this game for New England despite their trashing of the Jaguars and the humiliation suffered by the Dolphins in Tennessee, last week.

The first time these two AFC East foes played earlier this season, Miami won despite the Patriots being the better team, thanks to costly turnovers.

MORE PICKS: Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL Week 18 Picks and Predictions

I still believe that Belichick's squad is better than the Fins. As for the turnovers,  New England seems to have put a lid on those while Tua Tagovailoa seems to be struggling as of late while protecting the football in the pocket.

Also, last week the Dolphins gave up 198 rushing yards to a tandem made up of D'Onta Forman and Dontrell Hilliard and I can only help and wonder what the Harris-Stevenson tag team will do.

The Pick

Look for New England to step up the defense to create as many turnovers as possible and dominate the game just like Mike Vrabel and Tennessee did last week. By the way, remember when he was a Patriot? He learned that somewhere...

NFL Pick: Patriots -6 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Patriots -6 (-115)
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, January 9, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

Betting Analysis

At first glance, my gut was to go with the 49ers in this one. Kyle Shanahan has been Sean Mcvay's kryptonite the last couple of years and the way that Matthew Stafford has been playing (six picks in the last two games) just makes you cringe.

But with Jimmy Garoppolo questionable for Sunday, less than two weeks from suffering an injury to his right thumb. On top of that, left tackle and Pro Bowler, Trent Williams, is also questionable and didn't practice all week.

So with an unknown QB and significant injuries to the Niners' offensive line, we are going to back the Rams, right? Well, no. I'm not ready to do that again after last week.

MORE PICKS: 49ers vs. Rams NFL Week 18 Preview and Best Bet

What I do know is that Sean McVay will probably go back to running a system similar to what he had with Jared Goff in order to reduce mistakes and turnovers by his aging QB, hence we should expect Los Angeles to focus on running the ball.

Another thing I know is that San Fran's front seven has been very good and will probably make that task for Sony Michel harder than expected. With all that being said and almost 90% of the public on the over, I'm suggesting to you, my fellow bettors, to take a look at the under.

The Pick

Despite the lopsided action, the opening line has moved only by half a point and with the common misconception that this is the same Rams high octane offense of a couple of years ago I'll wait closer to game time to see if we get a little bit more value.

So far this season, the over/under in L.A.'s games are 8-7-1, and for the Niners that record is 7-8-1. This season, the Rams and Niners players have been great for Fantasy Football but this week they could fail to show up for many teams during Championship Week.

Then again, that's another reason to have your finals in Week 17...you know as normal leagues do.

NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-105) at BetOnline

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Under 44.5 (-105)
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Jobu's Corner

  • Jobu's Record: 3-1

Well, Jobu seems to be back on track after hitting his last two picks. The Guru looks to make it three in a row with his bet on the Chargers.

It's a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams and last week we backed the Vegas Bad Boys to cover against the Colts but this time we are going to fade them.

As Jobu said, the last time the Raiders played against a real QB, they got spanked. Look for Justin Herbert to seal a ticket to his first playoff experience.

Jobu's NFL Pick: Chargers -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Chargers -3 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.