I have to admit I’m not big on most Christmas songs but this weekend I’m going to be singing “It’s the most wonderful time of the year” a lot.
That’s right people! Starting Week 15 we get Saturday football from the NFL for the next couple of weeks and that’s exactly where we’re going to start off for our best bets.
Last week, we went 2-1 in our BMR debut and this week we’re looking to get that sweep, so let’s break down some NFL odds.
New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, December 18, 2021 – 08:20 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium
In their last game, out of a total of 49 plays, the Patriots called only three passes and still managed to beat the Bills at Buffalo. On the other hand, the Colts are 0-6 in the games in which RB Jonathan Taylor had less than 100 rushing yards. Tell me you like to run the football without... right?
Now, you're probably thinking, "whoa, on top of that New England has Bill Belichick on the sidelines and he's great at canceling his opponent’s best weapon." And you're right! Question is, will the New England defense, as great as they've played, be able to stop a great talent like JT.
You see, the Patriots come into this matchup with the 6th best defense against the rush yet the Titans ran for over 200 yards against them in Week 12, at Foxborough! And Derrick Henry was already out, so this was the product of Dontrell Hilliard and D'Onta Foreman each rushing for over 100 yards each.
Meanwhile, the Colts have the 5th best defense against the run and that's been consistent all season, even in their defeat against the Bucs in Week 12. This means Mac Jones will be forced to throw the ball more, in a hostile environment with hectic crowd noise and against a Colts team that's also very good at creating turnovers.
While it's true that the rushing game will be the key matchup, the winner will come down to the best QB.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 19, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field
Like my buddy Jason Radowitz said in his Upset Alert article for this week, we go from two of the best teams in the NFL to the two worst. Alas, that's the power of injuries and COVID protocols. Well, that and public sentiment inflating a dubious line, to begin with.
Truth of the matter is that I liked the Texans, even before the Urban Mayer dismissal news and all the toxic drama he fostered down in Jacksonville made its way to the headlines.
But at +5 points, with the public insisting on laying the points on the Jags? I'll take the value, thank you very much. Now, if you, like my colleague Kelsey Kramer, believe that the Urban-less Jags will have a sense of new life, go check her betting preview!
MORE PICKS: Last Chance Value Picks for NFL Week 15
Thing is that, while David Mills has been bad (8 interceptions in 9 games), Trevor Lawrence hasn't played better, throwing 14 picks in 14 games, making it one of the few stat categories he leads.
Also, the Jaguars average less than 2 touchdowns per game (13.8) and mostly because Lawrence has only thrown two of them since Week 8. I am worried about James Robinson running havoc but, at the end of the day, Texans are a more cohesive organization (gulp!) than the Jaguars.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 19, 2021 – 04:05 PM EST at Empower Field
Two 7-6 teams in the AFC, still on the hunt for a playoff spot. Problem is I believe only one of these two teams is in that position thanks to their talent and the other one thanks to the extra wild card.
Yes, the Broncos have won four of their last six games and are coming off an impressive victory... against the Lions. And that's where I'm trying to get at. 5 out of their 7 victories have been against teams below .500. The only good squads they've beaten are the Cowboys and the Chargers.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The problem has been the health of the offensive line. Despite those woes, last week Cincy came really close to beating the 49ers in an electric game.
Looking back at the tape you could argue that the Bengals gameplan got in their way at the start of the game because Joe Burrow waited too long to throw the football. Once that happened, Cincy took control of the game and that's a mistake the coaching staff (hopefully) won't repeat.
Yes, the Broncos’ defense has been stellar and they've allowed an average of 12.3 points in their last four wins, but this Cincy team has the power to stop Denver's rushing tandem in rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon and Denver's D won't be out on the field for long if they have to play from behind.
This will make it come down to Joe Burrow vs. Teddy Bridgewater and like I said last week in a situation in which I'm gifted the points plus the better QB! Where do I sign up? My buddy Spread Astaire is so sure, he took Cincy on the ML!
Since I know you like stats I'll let you go with this. This season, the Broncos are 0-3 against AFC North rivals, losing by an average of nine points. As for the Bengals, they are better than their record suggests... just think how many wins they really should have after knowing that 4 out of their 6 defeats were by a combined 12 points!
NFL Pick: Bengals +3 (-105) at YouWager
- Jobu's Record: 1-0
The master of Santeria is obviously aligning himself with the dark forces this week as he told me that he found value in the Patriots plus the points.
The combination of Jobu plus the Evil Master Belichick made me double think my pick but we can't be afraid... right? Let's hope that football (and betting) gods side with us and the Colts in our NFL pick!
NFL Pick: Patriots +2.5 (-105) at YouWager
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.