Eagles vs. Colts NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Both Offenses Will Struggle to Score

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Miles Sanders #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball whilst Dante Fowler Jr. #56 of the Dallas Cowboys attempts the tackle. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for this week’s game between Philadelphia and Indianapolis.

The Eagles are no longer undefeated. After losing on Monday Night Football to the Commanders, they are 8-1. This last result was no doubt surprising, but the Eagles simply didn’t bring their best version of themselves. They were uncharacteristically sloppy, making an unfortunate number of mistakes that especially resulted in turnovers.

Indianapolis, in complete contrast to Philadelphia, is riding unusually high. Benefitting anomalously from some positive matchup advantages, the Colts beat the Raiders.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for this game at one of the best sportsbooks.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Pass Protection Issues

One aspect in which Indianapolis's offensive line has regressed is pass protection. The Colts rank 27th in limiting the rate at which their quarterback gets sacked.

While having a statue in quarterback Matt Ryan doesn't help, Ryan has shown that he can still be a successful passer if he just gets enough protection from his offensive line.

Conversely, he tends to suffer when his pass protection is lacking. In such cases, the entire Colts offense will struggle.

Offense Best Games

To be exact, the offense's best performances this year have come in games in which Ryan was sacked the fewest number of times.

Most recently, Ryan was sacked once in 28 drop-backs when he faced the Raiders last week. Indianapolis won that game while Ryan achieved a solid 109.5 passer rating, but the Colts' best offensive performance this season took place a few games ago.

Outside of Jacksonville, where they seem to be cursed every year, the Colts scored 34 points against the Jaguars. Ryan was sacked 0 times in 58 drop-backs, and with 389 passing yards, he led his Colts to a win.

In a similar vein, there was one more instance in which Ryan was sacked fewer than 3 times. Against the Texans, Ryan was sacked twice, and, in that game, he helped his team manage a 20-20 tie, despite Indianapolis's horrific opening day tendencies under its prior head coach.

Offense Worst Games

The Colts did manage 20 points one other time, despite Ryan getting sacked more often in that game. That game was anomalous. In it, the Chiefs gifted the Colts an early turnover, allowing them to require all 4 yards for a touchdown.

Otherwise, the Colts haven't managed to score more than 16 points in a game. As their pass protection has struggled to limit the number of times Ryan gets sacked, the entire offense struggles to sustain drives.

Run-blocking is an issue, too, as running back Jonathan Taylor's stats have regressed significantly from last year. His YPC and rushing touchdowns per game averages have both dropped.


Philadelphia Eagles

Stronger Pass Rush

Indianapolis's ability to sniff 20 points hinges on the success of its ability to limit the number of times Matt Ryan gets sacked. The Colts maximized this ability only in games in which they faced low-ranked pass rushes. This statistic, sack rate, is what unites the defenses that Ryan and the Colts thrived against.

To be exact, the Raiders' pass rush ranks 32nd and Jacksonville ranks 30th. While the Raiders especially do boast an excellent pass rusher and he did manage a sack against the Colts, this one pass rusher doesn't possess nearly enough help from teammates.

Quite unlike the Raiders and Jaguars, Philadelphia has a high-ranking pass rush. The Eagles boast the 5th-best team sack percentage. They boast sundry strong pass-rushing options that will attack the opposing quarterback from both the interior and from the outside. Moreover, these studs are healthy.

While Josh Sweat is listed as questionable, the talented defensive end is healthy. On Monday Night, in fact, he achieved a sack. Also, look out for Haason Reddick off the edge and Fletcher Cox in the interior. Both players have combined for 9.5 sacks and there are more quality pass-rushing options beside them.

They will harass Matt Ryan all game, limiting his capacity to throw and, ultimately, replicating his offense's worst performances.

Offensive Inclinations

For the "Over" to hit, Philadelphia's offense will need to do a lot of work because it won't get much help from the Colts' offense.

Primarily, the Eagles want to run the ball. They typically aren't going to rely on quarterback Jalen Hurts to throw for 300 yards. He will not reliably lead, via his passing skills, a game to ultimately go "Over" the total.

Instead, Hurts is one reason why the Eagles own the 5th-highest run-play percentage.


Eagles Against Colts' Run Defense

I like the Colts' defense because it is stronger against the offensive aspect on which Philadelphia relies most heavily, running the ball.

Indianapolis benefits from excellent defensive line play that, among others, features Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner.

Most notably, Stewart has accumulated 12 run stuffs so far, while Buckner reliably handles double teams to facilitate the success of his team's linebackers.

Overall, they rank 10th at limiting opposing rushing yards, while they are trending upwards in their most recent performances.


The Verdict

Indianapolis's offense will return to its usual struggles thanks to the Eagles' pass rush while, confronting Indianapolis's stiff resistance against the run, Philadelphia's offense won't score nearly enough for the "Over" to have a chance.

With your NFL picks, invest in the "Under" for this game.

NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 44.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.