Dolphins vs. Jets Free NFL Picks for Week 11

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Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins. Joshua Bessex/Getty Images/AFP

The Dolphins pulled off a shock win to kick off Week 10 by beating the Ravens on Thursday night football last week. It gives them extra rest coming into this AFC East clash against their rivals from the big apple. The spread line has this as a competitive game with the Dolphins quite a narrow favorite at the time of writing, and a low total of around 45 points.

Keep reading to look at the NFL odds and get some expert advice to make the right NFL pick. Let’s go.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Sunday, November 21, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Metlife Stadium

Can the Dolphins Carry Their Form?

After a dismal start to the year, the Dolphins have now notched up two wins in a row against the Texans and Ravens. They’ll be looking a few wins ahead of them and thinking they’ve still got a chance of sneaking into a wildcard spot as the malaise in the middle of AFC gets more congested.

After coming in for the second half of that Ravens win the Dolphins announced earlier in the week that Tua Tagovailoa will be the starting QB for them and that’s got to be an upgrade on Jacoby Brissett even if there’s not a huge discrepancy in talent between the two of them.

He finished off the game well last week, with just 8 of 13 passes completed but a long reception helped them get down the field for a score soon afterward. He was pumped on that play and it would have done his confidence a world of good after a frequently interrupted year, as would scoring a rushing TD.

It should be noted that running backs have scored a lot against the Jets, 20 touchdowns, a massive 62.5% of the TDs they’ve conceded this season so while the Dolphins RBs haven’t taken over the league this year this is a matchup they should be able to take advantage of so Myles Gaskin should be in for a good game.

Mike Gesicki will be hoping to actually catch some passes this week after 0 from 7 targets last week while Jaylen Waddle continues to get peppered with passes, outside of those two it’s anybody’s guess who gets the ball.

The Star That Shines Whitest Burns the Shortest

The Mike White era could be over already after his performance on Sunday against the Bills. They are a good defense but he looked lost completing 24 of 44 attempts and throwing 4 interceptions as the game got away from them. He went away from the short, safe passes which had worked so well and started going long. It didn’t work. They did give Joe Flacco some game time though and he threw their TD. Will he challenge for the start?

The running backs were again effective in the passing game as Ty Johnson and Michael Carter finished with around 40 receiving yards each. Carter got the bulk of the carries on the ground as he has all season and scored in garbage time for his 4th of the season. Corey Davis led the team in the passing game, but a fumble when trying to gain extra yards blotted his stat sheet.

He and rookie Elijah Moore at least give the Jets players to get the ball to in the aspect of the game and Moore found the endzone again with Flacco in the game late on. They should look to get him more involved. The Jets defense has done fairly well against the pass though, but the Dolphins' general game plan of short, quick passes should negate the good safety play.

Who Takes Control of the Third Spot in the Division?

Unsurprisingly given the recent history of the Jets, the Dolphins have won the last 6 in a row and covered the spread in each of them. The Jets have been one of the worst teams in the league while the Dolphins were a playoff team last season.

While the Dolphins haven’t been good this season they should still have enough to pull off a road win this weekend. For my NFL pick, I think they actually match up quite well against the Jets.

NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins -3 (-105) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Miami Dolphins -3 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.