We’ve got an exciting Week 10 matchup between the Cleveland Browns, who are coming off the bye week to take on the red-hot Miami Dolphins.
Both of these teams have been great on offense, but below average on defense.
The Browns will be desperate for a win with a string of very tough games coming up while the Dolphins try to keep pace with the Bills in the AFC East.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins' Offense Is Legit
We’re more than halfway through the season and the Miami Dolphins offense has to be recognized as a serious threat. They’ve got most of their unit healthy and they’ve been able to create matchup nightmares with their speed. A lot of credit has to be given to first-year head coach Mike McDaniel, who is a former 49ers offensive coordinator.
A lot of the Dolphins' success comes from their ability to scheme players open. Much like the offense in San Francisco, the playcalling in Miami has looked superior this season. The biggest beneficiary of this has been Tyreke Hill who is breaking records in a Dolphins uniform.
At the moment, Hill has 1104 yards through the first 9 games of the season, which is the most in NFL history. He can’t thank the growth of third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Despite his well-documented issues with concussions this season, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
What Are the Odds?
The line for this game at top-rated sportsbooks opened at Dolphins -5.5 and has been steamed down to -3.5. The sharp action on the Browns makes sense because as good as Miami’s offense is, their defense is that bad. They can’t stop the run which is a massive problem against this Browns team.
In the last two weeks, they’ve allowed the Lions and the Bears to average 29.5 points per game. The Browns are a much better offense than both so this game has potential to be very high scoring considering the Browns defensive issues.
Browns Desperate for a Win
The Browns are coming off a bye week and I expect them to be competitive in this game. They need to keep pace in the AFC North where the division-leading Baltimore Ravens are still within striking distance at 5-3.
If they lose this game against Miami, they might be leaving themselves with a hill that’s too big to climb. After this game in Miami, they play Buffalo and Tampa Bay in back-to-back games.
This Dolphins game is the most winnable of the three and could possibly give them the momentum they need to get their season back on track. This won’t be easy with the way the Dolphins offense looks right now.
Add to that the Browns struggles on defense and they will need Jacoby Brissett to be at his best. The Browns don’t rely on Brissett to carry them, but in a game against a high-powered offense like Miami’s, they might need more than a game manager which is what Brissett is for the most part.
Brissett has been fine for the Browns with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions through 8 games but this offense belongs to Nick Chubb who is the best running back in the league right now. He is second in the league in rushing yards behind Derrick Henry.
Chubb has been more efficient however, averaging 5.6 yards per carry compared to Henry’s 4.8. He is helped by the league’s best offensive line that not only finds running lanes for him but does a fantastic job at keeping Brissett on his feet.
Browns in Over Their Heads
As much as I want to take the points with Cleveland as my NFL pick, there are so many factors working against them here. First of all, if Miami gets a lead and they need to rely on Brissett’s arm to get them back in the game, that’s asking a lot. The ideal situation is for the Browns to control the clock through their run game and get Brissett opportunities through play-action.
In a clean pocket, Brissett has 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. While under pressure, he has 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Tua for his part has really done a good job dealing with pressure with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions in those situations.
On the season, Tua has 15 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions in 7 starts this season and seems to get better with every game. The Browns need Myles Garrett to put pressure on him. Unfortunately for Garrett, he hasn’t had much help in that department this season. He has more than twice as many QB pressures as his next closest teammate this season.
I’m taking the Dolphins -3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) and the Under 49 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review). I don’t think the Browns can score enough points to keep up with this high-powered Dolphins team. On top of that, the one thing the Dolphins do well on defense is stop the run.
While they might not be able to stop the Browns' rushing attack, which is the best in the league, they should at least be able to slow them down enough at times to put Brissett in third and long situations.
Last but not least, and following the NFL odds, I’m taking Cleveland Total Touchdowns Under 2.5 (-127) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). The Browns average only 2 touchdowns a game on the road compared to 3.4 at home.
One of the main reasons for that is they are terrible in the red zone on the road, only scoring touchdowns on 36% of those trips which is 5th worst in the league.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 24-Browns 16
NFL Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-110) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Under 49 (-110) at BookMaker
NFL Pick: Browns Under 2.5 Touchdowns Under 2.5 (-127) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.