Dolphins vs. Bears NFL Week 9 Picks and Prediction: Two Very Different Offenses

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Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins hands off to Raheem Mostert #31 of the Miami Dolphins against the Detroit Lions. Rey Del Rio/Getty Images/AFP.

The Miami Dolphins (5-3) are coming off a high-scoring 31-27 win in Detroit. The Chicago Bears (3-5) are coming off a high-scoring 49-29 loss in Dallas. Two teams of very different offensive styles are set to clash here.

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 45 points at many of the best sportsbooks. We want to share some NFL picks and predictions for this Week 9 matchup.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

Two Very Different Offenses

Miami Dolphins

In Detroit, the Dolphins trailed by 14 points multiple times. Fortunately, the passing offense was clicking, and the Dolphins scored more than 21 points in a game for just the second time this season.

Tua Tagovailoa had 382 yards and 3 touchdowns, looking more like the quarterback who skewered the Ravens for 469 yards and 6 touchdowns earlier this season.

The Dolphins continue to succeed with the fastest wide receiver duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Both were over 100 yards again on Sunday. Hill leads the NFL with 961 receiving yards and Waddle is not far behind at No. 4 with 727 yards.

While the Dolphins have two No. 1 receivers, the Bears basically have Darnell Mooney, who has averaged 67.4 yards per game over the last 5 games after the Bears barely wanted to throw the ball in Weeks 1-3.

Chicago Bears

However, Chicago is running the ball with historic success and has two No. 1 running backs in David Montgomery and the emerging Khalil Herbert. But getting quarterback Justin Fields involved in the ground attack has a lot to do with it too.

The Bears have rushed for at least 230 yards in 3 consecutive games. Only the 1949 Eagles, 1951 49ers, and 1976 Steelers have been able to do that in 4 consecutive games in NFL history, so the Bears could make some history here by joining that club and doing something that hasn’t been done in over 45 years.

Fortunately, Miami has been solid against the run this year, ranked No. 6 in yards allowed and No. 11 in yards per carry. But the closest offense to Chicago that the Dolphins faced was Baltimore, and the Ravens piled up 155 yards on the ground with quarterback Lamar Jackson running for 119 yards, including 79 yards on one play.

Fields isn’t quite Jackson as a runner, and he’s been even farther behind as a passer to this point. But if the Miami offense can score like it did on Sunday in Detroit, then the Bears are going to have to throw some more to keep up.

Tyreek Hill: Where Are the Touchdowns?

When he was with Kansas City, the belief was Tyreek Hill could make any quarterback look great on the deep ball by using his speed to catch up to any throw. Having Patrick Mahomes helps, but even Alex Smith had a career year in 2017 when the Chiefs unleashed Hill on deep balls.

In his first year with Miami, Hill is living up to the hype. Hill leads the NFL in targets (92), catches (69), and he is 197 yards ahead of the next closest receiver in Stefon Diggs.

Hill’s 961 receiving yards are the 7th most through a team’s first 8 games in NFL history, and he is only 6 yards behind ranking No. 4 on that list.

Yet, the shocking fact is that Hill only has 2 touchdowns, and they were both on blown coverages in the fourth quarter against Baltimore as part of that huge comeback win.

What We Expected

We thought Hill would be doing this often on the deep ball in Miami, or being used creatively in the red zone to score, yet it hasn’t happened. River Cracraft has just as many touchdowns for Miami as Hill this year. Tight end Mike Gesicki has double Hill’s touchdown total.

Waddle leading the team with 5 scores is one thing, but we need to see more touchdowns from Hill if the Dolphins are going to start scoring more like they did in Detroit more often.

Of the 36 players to have at least 870 receiving yards through 8 games, Hill ranks 35th in touchdown catches with 2. Only Julio Jones (2018 Falcons) had fewer with one touchdown, and Julio notoriously does not catch many touchdowns. Hill already has 3 seasons with at least 12 touchdown scores in his career.

This was one of the concerns with Tua Tagovailoa and the deep ball. Tua has 4 career touchdown passes of 30-plus yards, and Hill has half of them in that Baltimore game. But this offense needs to connect on some more of those plays.

Let's Trust Hill

Let’s go with some touchdown regression and bet on Hill to find the end zone this week since he is getting the ball in his hands so often. He is bound to return to the end zone soon.

NFL Pick: Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Dolphins vs. Bears: Game Prediction

Miami has had a weird home-road split where its highest-scoring games have all been on the road, and the team has allowed 27-plus points in all 4 road games. In 4 home games, Miami has yet to allow more than 24 points.

I do not see Chicago scoring 27-plus in this one for the 3rd week in a row. The Dolphins should have had good practice with Baltimore at slowing this run game down, and the fact is Fields is not Lamar Jackson. The Bears also have fewer receiving weapons than the Ravens, and corner Xavien Howard could do his best to hold down Mooney.

Chicago’s defense, which just traded linebacker Roquan Smith to Baltimore, has more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (7) allowed, which is good, but a lot of this is the schedule and other circumstances.

The Bears have held 3 teams under 20 points this season. The 49ers and Patriots were both played in the rain, and the Patriots had a quarterback controversy explode that night. The Washington game was on a Thursday night and Carson Wentz broke his finger during the game.

Tagovailoa is still the No. 1 quarterback in QBR this season, so this is arguably the toughest test yet for this defense, which failed miserably against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday.

Final Picks

Following the NFL odds, let’s go with the Over as both teams are looking to score more than they were earlier in the season, but the Dolphins are still the better team here.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 26 - Bears 20

NFL Pick: Over 45 Points (-110) at Bovada

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NFL Pick: Dolphins -4.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Dolphins -4.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.