Dolphins vs. 49ers NFL Week 13 Picks & Prediction: Division Leaders Clash in the Bay

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Two division leaders meet in the marquee matchup of Week 13’s schedule and we have your NFL pick for it.

The Miami Dolphins are tied with the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East at 8-3. The San Francisco 49ers have a one-game lead in the NFC West at 7-4. In addition to leading their respective divisions, the Dolphins and Niners are among the hottest teams in the NFL.

Miami has won five straight games since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a pair of concussions to lead the team at quarterback. San Francisco has won its last four games, allowing just 40 points, combined, to its opponents over that winning streak.

Let’s break down the NFL odds for this epic matchup between the 49ers’ defense and a Dolphins offense that has scored 135 points in its last four outings.

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Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 04:05 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium

I Know You

There are plenty of connections between the two teams as Miami heads west. The Dolphins and 49ers conducted a trade a few weeks ago, right before the NFL’s deadline, sending running back Jeff Wilson from San Francisco to Miami. Since joining the Dolphins, Wilson has scored two touchdowns rushing and one receiving in three games, exceeding his touchdowns scored in eight games with the Niners to start the year.

Wilson joins running back Raheem Mostert, who left the 49ers to sign with Miami in the offseason, and coach Mike McDaniel, a longtime assistant of San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan.

The reunion won’t be all pleasant, however. Mostert appeared to take a shot at Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, saying: “We have way better talent here. It’s going to get spooky. […] We have a quarterback who can actually sling it.”

Tua Tagovailoa has been slinging it since his return to the field following early-season concussion problems. In the five-game winning streak, he has completed 70 percent of his passes for 1529 yards (306 a week) and thrown 11 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Injuries for the Dolphins

On Sunday, Miami built a 30-0 lead in the first half and rested its starters as the Dolphins cruised to a win. Tagovailoa threw for 299 yards, with receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle getting more than half of them. Hill and Waddle have combined for three 100-yard receiving days and five touchdowns over the winning streak. The Dolphins did have to punt in the game, they are first since Nov. 6.

Hill struggled with cramps during the win, but the bigger injury concern is the offensive line. Two blockers went down, and Tagovailoa was sacked four times. Right tackle Austin Jackson hurt his ankle and left the game in the second half, and left tackle Terron Armstead had a pectoral injury just before halftime. He was already playing with a toe injury. Neither’s status was updated after the game.

Banged Up San Francisco

The San Francisco defense hit its high point for the season on Sunday, shutting out the Saints, 13-0. The performance was even more impressive since San Francisco was playing on short rest after playing in Mexico City on Monday night.

The offense failed to score 14 points for the third time this season but the first since Week Three, and the lack of recovery time from the last game appears to have resulted in a rash of injuries that the team will need to monitor this week.

Injury Report

The most serious appears to be to running back Elijah Mitchell, who went down with a knee injury. He’d already missed seven weeks with a sprained MCL in his left knee and now appears to have suffered the same injury in his other knee. Coach Kyle Shanahan said the team doesn’t believe it’s as severe as the initial sprain, but he’ll still likely miss time.

Guard Spencer Burford sprained his ankle, but Shanahan said it doesn’t appear to be a high ankle sprain, which would take more recovery time. "They said they thought it was a lateral one, which is much better than a high one," Shanahan said. "But it was too bad to go back in, though. That's all we know now."

Receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey both had leg problems during the game but were able to return to play.

Garoppolo also stayed in the game despite taking a hard hit to his knee that appeared to bother him throughout the day. "Jimmy, he took some hits today," Shanahan said. "I don't have anything exactly on him, but I know he's sorer than usual, so we'll check him up in here and see how he is tomorrow. But he had a very gutty performance. I know he got hit a bunch in this game.”


The Picks

Miami appears to be in a better place, health-wise. While the attention will be on the matchup between the Niners’ defense and the Dolphins’ offense, each team’s less-heralded side of the ball could determine the outcome.

Miami’s defense is no slouch, holding the last two opponents, and three of the last five, to under 20 points. Look for the Dolphins to shut down a hobbled Niners’ offense and score enough when they have the ball to pull away.

If you're a Dolphins or 49ers fan betting from Florida, be sure to take a look at our Florida betting sites.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24 - 49ers 13

NFL Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Dolphins +3.5 (-110)
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NFL Pick: Under 46.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Under 46.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.