Divisional Round Playoff Best Player Props for Saturday: Patrick Mahomes Keeps MVP Season Going 

profile image of scottkacsmar

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 310.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Patrick Mahomes Over 310.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Visit Site

The NFL’s Divisional round begins Saturday with two more rematches. The Jaguars will try to start faster against the Chiefs, and we get a third game late in the year between the Giants and Eagles. The Giants rested most starters in Week 18 but the Eagles can complete the three-game sweep. 

We have narrowed down our favorite player props that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles. 

Let’s take a closer the NFL odds to find the values we need to keep cashing our NFL picks

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

Saturday, January 21, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium 

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)  

  • Over 310.5 Passing Yards 
  • Over 26.5 Total Completions  

Despite three turnovers, the Chiefs had a strong offensive showing against Jacksonville in Week 10. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdown passes, and he has thrown for over 310 yards in all three games against Jacksonville in his career. 

Mahomes has also thrown for at least 255 yards in every playoff game, and that lowest number was in a Cleveland game where he was injured early in the third quarter. 

In Week 10, the Jaguars barely blitzed Mahomes and got little pressure on him. He diced them up for 26 completions and 331 yards in one of his best passing games this year. 

The Jaguars already allowed their season high in yards (486) to this Kansas City offense in Week 10. Look for Mahomes to continue his MVP success with a big game against a defense that ranks No. 24 in yards per drive allowed.  

Also, in liking the Jaguars to cover and make this interesting, that should only implore Andy Reid to keep letting Mahomes throw in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs were only 6-10-1 ATS this year and have needed many comebacks to win enough games for the No. 1 seed. This team is going to live or die on Mahomes’ talents this postseason.  

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 310.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada 

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Total Completions (-125) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Total Completions (-125)
Visit Site

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) 

  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns 

Trevor Lawrence had one of the most peculiar playoff debuts in NFL history. He threw four interceptions to fall into a 27-0 hole before leading the third-biggest comeback in playoff history with four touchdown passes. He is also the only quarterback to ever win a playoff game after throwing four picks while getting no takeaways from his defense. 

But Lawrence is going to have to play much better on the road here. He had two touchdowns in Week 10, but the Chiefs sacked him five times despite his quick release.  

Still, his over in touchdown passes should be a good bet here. The Chiefs allowed 33 touchdown passes this season, four more than any other defense. The 2022 Chiefs are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games despite allowing at least 33 touchdown passes.  

NFL Prop Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
Visit Site

Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) 

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

The Chiefs have gotten incredible touchdown production out of their running backs and tight ends in the passing game this year. That is how they have moved on from Tyreek Hill to still have the No. 1 offense in most categories. 

Travis Kelce also had another monster year, but he has not scored a touchdown in six straight games, the longest drought of his career since Mahomes took over as his quarterback in 2018. 

In fact, there is only one seven-game streak in Kelce’s career where he did not reach the end zone, and that was back in 2016 with Alex Smith as his quarterback in an anemic offense that led to the drafting of Mahomes the next year.  

Kelce has caught a touchdown in six of his last seven playoff games, including all three games last postseason. He also caught one of Mahomes’ touchdown passes in Week 10 against the Jaguars. Let’s count on him to end his drought here and score. 

NFL Prop Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-152) at Bovada  

Bovada logo
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-152)
Visit Site

Zay Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars)  

  • Over 4.5 Receptions 

Much maligned at the start of the season, Jacksonville’s trio of new receivers (Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram) have really paid off this year with career seasons by each.  

Jones has turned into a good possession receiver for Lawrence. He had eight catches against the Chiefs in Week 10, something he has done five times this year. He has also gone over 4.5 catches in 9-of-17 games

With the Chiefs likely scoring their share of points and forcing the Jaguars to throw often, Jones is a great choice to hit his over in receptions against a defense that allowed the fourth-most completions in the NFL this season. 

NFL Prop Pick: Zay Jones Over 4.5 Receptions (-150) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Zay Jones Over 4.5 Receptions (-150)
Visit Site

Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) 

  • Over 3.5 Total Yards on 1st Rushing Attempt 

This is a fun one you can find on Bovada for your NFL picks. Pacheco runs like every carry is going to be his last. Pacheco is always full steam ahead like he’s trying to outrun the tsunami in Deep Impact

One of his best games this season was against Jacksonville when he had 16 carries for 82 yards. But the first drive was not good as his first carry gained 2 yards and his second was a 4-yard run in the red zone that ended with a fumble. 

But with the rookie getting his first taste of the postseason and the Chiefs likely coming out throwing, look for him to run like his hair is on fire the moment he touches the ball, gaining over 3.5 yards in the process. 

Remember, fans from the Sunshine State and the Show Me State who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Florida and Missouri betting sites.

NFL Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 3.5 Total Yards on 1st Rushing Attempt (+100) at Bovada  

Bovada logo
Isiah Pacheco Over 3.5 Total Yards on 1st Rushing Attempt (+100)
Visit Site

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

Saturday, January 21, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field 

Daniel Jones (New York Giants) 

  • Under 217.5 Passing Yards 

This is a tough one because Daniel Jones is playing some of his best ball right now, but there’s also a strong likelihood that it has been opponent based in the last three games. He has thrown for over 300 yards twice against the Vikings, one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year.  

The only other time Jones threw for more than 217 yards this year was against Detroit (341), another defense that spent most of the season ranked at the bottom, and he only did that because the Giants were trailing by double digits, and he had 228 yards against Dallas on Thanksgiving thanks to a garbage-time drive. 

Jones only had 169 passing yards against the Eagles in Week 14, a 48-22 rout where he fell behind 21-0 quickly. Tyrod Taylor had to finish the game with the score out of whack, and he threw for 47 yards, giving the quarterbacks 216 that day. 

A Look at the Bigger Picture

Davis Webb threw the ball 40 times against the Eagles in Week 18 only to gain 168 yards, but he is a backup and was playing with other backups. That game has little relevance here. 

But the Eagles have only allowed 3-of-17 quarterbacks this year to throw for over 217 yards. The pass rush has been great with 70 sacks, the corners have done a great job on the outside against wide receivers, and this is a Giants offense that is relying a lot on unheralded receivers right now. They do not have the dominant weapons who can outrun or outmuscle the defense like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the Eagles. 

Jones has passed for 202 and 169 yards in his two games against this Philadelphia coaching staff. This is a week where his legs, running game, and especially defense are going to have to carry the day if the Giants are to win this game. This is not a big passing game opportunity for him like Minnesota was last week. Take the under. 

NFL Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-125) at Bovada  

Bovada logo
Daniel Jones Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Visit Site

Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) 

  • Under 247.5 Passing Yards 

Hurts has had a very good season, but the Giants have not been a great opponent for him to show his passing prowess. In four career meetings, he has yet to throw for more than 229 yards. 

The 229 is what he had in Week 18, and again, that was against a Giants team that played backups and had little but pride to play for. Hurts also has four games this season where he failed to gain a first down on better than 29% of his passes, and two of those games were against the Giants. 

Hurts only has five games this season where he passed for over 247.5 yards. With the Eagles getting right tackle Lane Johnson back, and the Giants ranking 27th against the run and 31st in yards per carry, look for the Eagles to rely more on the running game than a dominant passing game to have success here. Take the under on Hurts as a passer in his first home playoff start.  

NFL Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada  

Bovada logo
Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Visit Site

Boston Scott (Philadelphia Eagles) 

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

Call it a longshot, call it a value pick, but make sure you call Boston Scott the Giant Killer. Over 60% of his career touchdowns have come in either the playoffs or in games against the Giants

Scott has scored 10-of-17 regular-season touchdowns against the Giants, including both games this year, and he has scored a touchdown in all eight games he’s played against this team. That is some incredible rivalry stuff right there. 

Scott does not play many snaps in this offense with Miles Sanders leading the way, but if things are going well for the Eagles, or even if they are going bad, what could be a better way of trolling the Giants than to put in the Giant Killer for another touchdown? 

NFL Prop Pick: Boston Scott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+400) at Bovada  

Bovada logo
Boston Scott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+400)
Visit Site

Isaiah Hodgins (New York Giants) 

  • Under 45.5 Receiving Yards  

Hodgins has been an incredible pickup during the season from Buffalo, especially with the way the Giants have been cleaned out by injuries, trades, and disappointment in their wide receiver corps. 

But like with the Jones pick for a passing under, this is a matchup issue. Hodgins has been held under 45.5 yards in every game this season except for the two he played against Minnesota’s terrible pass defense.  

He exploded for 89 and 105 yards in those games, and also scored a touchdown in both. He had a touchdown in Week 14 against the Eagles too, but he only finished with 38 yards, which is about his normal game this year. 

The Eagles have some great corners this year in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. If someone is going to break 50 yards on the Eagles, you might have more luck with Richie James or Darius Slayton as they do not need to play the Vikings just to hit those numbers as Hodgins has.  

NFL Prop Pick: Isaiah Hodgins Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada  

Bovada logo
Isaiah Hodgins Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Visit Site

Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) 

  • Over 50.5 Receiving Yards 

This is another pick that looks so tempting after Minnesota tight end T.J. Hockenson had his second 100-yard game against the Giants in the last month. He seemingly was open all the time, though maybe Kirk Cousins should not have thrown a 3-yard pass to him on fourth-and-8 with the season on the line. 

But Goedert is quite arguably a better tight end, and he was missed after getting injured in the Washington loss earlier this season. By the time he returned in Week 16, Hurts was injured with his shoulder strain. So, Hurts and Goedert have only played one game together since Week 11, but at least it was Week 18 against the Giants (backups or not). 

Goedert played every snap and caught 6-of-7 targets for 46 yards. In a bigger game, he can get that extra yardage to hit his over against a defense that allowed the 10th most receiving yards to tight ends in 2022

And fans from Empire State and the Keystone State who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated New York and Pennsylvania betting sites.

NFL Prop Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Dallas Goedert Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.