Other than Arizona and Buffalo, arguably the most impressive team in the NFL at the moment is the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has been absolute money against the spread at the NFL picks, does that continue in New England?
Remember when Mike McCarthy was a complete idiot about a year ago and people were calling for him to be fired long before completing his first season in the Lone Star State? With Dallas at 4-1 and 5-0 ATS, that narrative has certainly changed, hasn’t it?
New England is 2-3 SU and ATS and at this time it doesn’t look like they are playoff ready as many suggested back in August. Coach Bill Belichick still has work to do to get this team to play better football and give a more consistent effort.
Sunday, October 17, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
The best online sportsbooks like Intertops (visit out Intertops Review) got hit with early Dallas money and were forced to move the Cowboys from +1 to +3.5.
Whether those NFL odds will move come Sunday is to be determined, though it seems sharp bettors would take the hook on this nonconference clash.
Having Dak Prescott back has changed the fortunes of the Cowboys, but that’s only part of the story. Dallas has one of the top offenses in the NFL, and while having a top-level triggerman is important, you need the pieces to make it churn.
The ‘Boys have an excellent multi-faced collection of pass-catchers starting with Amari Cooper. After hearing that backup Tony Pollard was adding an explosive element to the running game, Ezekiel Elliott took that to heart and is running with fury and passion again, leading the league’s No. 2 run offense. Of course, none of this is possible without a bullish offensive line, and Prescott has one in front of him.
No question the defense is significantly better than a year ago with Dan Quinn the defensive coordinator. However, we are not going overboard as the national media has since Dallas is still 25th in total defense and 27th in yards per play allowed.
With the matchup with Tom Brady wearing an opposing uniform in Foxborough in the rearview mirror, New England fans and those making peace can truly start making an accurate assessment of the Patriots.
What jumps off the page is the Pats have nine turnovers and are -3 in turnover margin. Part of this falls on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Mack Jones, who’s been intercepted five times.
This is to be expected as any first-year quarterback is going to force some throws and it’s not like New England has even the best cast of receivers in their division, let alone the AFC.
Also, scratch the four turnovers the Jets made versus Belichick’s defense and they only have two miscues collected in 16 other quarters.
With a well below average running game (27th) and an offense lacking in difference-makers, the Patriots offense has to put together long drives to score.
The defense is 5th in points allowed at 18.4 PPG, however, to beat Dallas, they have to get off the field faster, with more three and outs, which also helps the offense for field position.
In looking to make NFL picks, what jumps at us like Jon Gruden emails, is Dallas at 5-0 against the spread. That is a hard betting number to sustain, as the markets become bloated on such teams, with bettors expecting unrealistic expectations.
The Cowboys have not been a good bet on the road after a home victory at 39-59 ATS and could stumble again.
Belichick’s bunch had an all-in effort two weeks ago versus the Buccaneers, came out flatter than a leftover Coke sitting open for two days, and barely escaped at Houston last Sunday.
Look for an inspired effort from New England at home where they are on a 7-0 ATS run as a non-division home underdog.
NFL Pick: Patriots +3.5 (-110) at Intertops
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.