The Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are fresh off a bye week and looking to extend the losing streak of the Green Bay Packers (3-6) to six games. But all the attention will be on former Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy returning to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers for the first time.
Rodgers is 7-2 as a starter against Dallas in his career but relying on past success is not doing Green Bay any favors in 2022. The Cowboys are a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 43 points at many of the best sportsbooks.
We have some NFL picks and predictions for this match that is going to receive plenty of hype even if the Packers are not living up to it this year.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field
Aaron Rodgers Facing the Best Dallas Defense
The Cowboys have been one of Aaron Rodgers’ most memorable opponents in his Hall of Fame career. The first significant game of his NFL career came on a Thursday night in Dallas in 2007 after starter Brett Favre was injured. Rodgers came off the bench and played well with 201 yards and the first touchdown pass of his career.
Rodgers has also had two of his best playoff wins against Dallas in the divisional round, including the “Dez Caught It” game in 2015 and the 34-31 win in 2016 after Rodgers’s pass to Jared Cook set up the game-winning field goal.
Rodgers also had a memorable game-winning drive in Dallas in 2017, throwing a 12-yard touchdown to Davante Adams with 11 seconds left in a 35-31 win.
Not Ready for This Defense
Dallas has often brought out the best in Rodgers, but this matchup may be the Dallas defense at its best and Rodgers at his worst with this five-game losing streak.
Against the worst defense in the NFL this year in Detroit, Rodgers led his team to nine points and threw three interceptions, which is nearly a full season’s worth of picks for him. It was a shockingly bad game against a Detroit team that allowed at least 24 points in every game this year before Sunday.
The Packers also left that game with more injuries to skill players as wide receiver Romeo Doubs, the good rookie on the team, is going to be out for this game with a high ankle sprain. Running back Aaron Jones also left Sunday’s game and his status is up in the air. The team continues to miss veteran wideout Randall Cobb, and rookie Christian Watson always seems to be hurt.
If Rodgers couldn’t do much with his rag-tag bunch against the Lions, what is he going to do against the Cowboys and the No. 3 scoring defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons?
Everything Against Them
The Cowboys have held every opponent under 200 net passing yards except for the Rams this year, but they also held the Rams to 10 points and scored on a fumble return.
Green Bay has struggled to find any identity on offense this year due to the departure of Adams, the aging of Rodgers, and the injuries to the minimal talent around him.
It would be a big surprise for Rodgers to shine in this game even if it is at home. But in Green Bay’s last home game against the Jets in Week 6, the Packers lost 27-10, the worst regular-season loss at home with Rodgers in his career.
Are the Cowboys Super Bowl Contenders?
More Complete Team
Dallas has had an interesting season after losing badly to Tampa in Week 1, losing Dak Prescott to thumb surgery, but the defense has legitimately turned into one of the best and not just a unit that feasts on turnovers like in 2021. The Cowboys kept winning ugly behind backup quarterback Cooper Rush, but they are 2-0 since Prescott returned.
The Cowboys have lost a lot of the spotlight with the Eagles starting 8-0 in the same division, but this team has a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl this year. If the offense can get back to the level it was at last season to go along with this defense, then the Cowboys are better suited for playoff football this year.
In 2021, the Cowboys really just feasted on the division rivals and were an average football team against the rest of the NFL.
The Cowboys scored 49 points in their last game before the bye against Chicago. Tony Pollard stepped up as the starting running back in place of Ezekiel Elliott and he scored three touchdowns.
Fans and analysts have been clamoring for more Pollard for years now as he usually looks more effective than Elliott. But owner Jerry Jones still believes Elliott, who is back, is the lead back on this team.
For the Cowboys to overtake the Eagles in the division, giving Pollard more time than Elliott may prove to be important to unlock this offense’s full potential. We’ll see how that workload split fares in Green Bay.
This is also a big game for Prescott, who won his only start in Green Bay as a rookie in 2016, but he has been on the short end of three high-scoring losses against Rodgers and the Packers since.
But with the way the Packers are struggling to put together touchdown drives, it seems unlikely that Prescott is going to need to score 30 or 40 points this week to get the win. For a prop pick, trust the Pollard explosion to continue for at least another touchdown in this one.
Cowboys vs. Packers: Best Bets and Prediction
You may be surprised to learn that the Cowboys have been the best spread bet in the NFL for 1.5 seasons running now.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are a league-best 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in all games.
- In 2022, Dallas joins the Giants and Titans as the only teams to be 6-2 ATS.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are a league-best 5-0 ATS as a road favorite.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are a league-best 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in games following a win.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are a league-best 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in road games.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are 13-4 ATS (76.5%) as a favorite, the best record for any team with at least three such games.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in games with a rest advantage.
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are a league-best 16-4 ATS (80.0%) in conference games.
Facing an Old Friend
When Tom Brady faced former head coach Bill Belichick for the first time in New England last season, Brady’s team was better and a 7-point favorite at the NFL odds. Belichick covered, and Brady got the 19-17 win.
For Rodgers, the roles are reversed with McCarthy coming in with the better team. It is not unreasonable for this game to be close and even high scoring enough to hit the over. Just two weeks ago, the Packers lost 27-17 in Buffalo in a game that went over 43 points, and Buffalo’s defense is arguably better than Dallas’s defense.
Thinking Rodgers could score 20 points at home doesn’t make you insane yet. Both Green Bay games with 27 points this year came at home. But in the end, expect the Cowboys to come out on top and push this game over with a cover for McCarthy as well for your best bets.
Hard to believe after Rodgers won the last two MVP awards, but McCarthy in Dallas just may be closer to getting back to a second Super Bowl than Rodgers is in Green Bay.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 26 - Packers 20
NFL Pick: Over 43 Points (-110) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Cowboys -5.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.