NFL Pick: Eagles -2 ½ (-108) for 5 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The conference championship games are here and Swinger has three big selections including a 5-unit MAX BET on Sunday. Let’s check out the NFL odds and see what SJ has in store with his AFC and NFC Conference Championship NFL picks!
- Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 34-31 ATS (-8.45 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
How Did We Do in the Division Week?
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, what a fine, fine Christmas we’d have. Tony Pollard’s injury crushed all of our hopes and dreams in our 5-unit money-burner on the Cowboys last week to which I added a 2-unit moneyline chaser. The 49ers held up and the Cowboys went down in a 19-12 loss that was the most bitter pill we’ve swallowed all season.
Although we have only had a handful of 5-unit max plays this season, this was the first that flamed. But the misery didn’t end there as we went over the posted total of 52 in the Jags/Chiefs game for 4 units but several Jacksonville miscues eliminated any hope that we had of cashing, as the Chiefs claimed a 27-20 win.
The only silver lining was our 3 unit play on the Jags as nine-point road hounds but that was of little solace as we dropped a whopping 8.9 units last week and are now officially underwater for the first time this season, and in many, many years.
Let’s turn this ship around and get it right this weekend, shall we?
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 3:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Jalen Hurts appears to be completely healed from the shoulder sprain he suffered in Week 15 against the Bears and the few games he sat out before returning in the final week of the regular season could have been the best medicine any professional football player could receive entering the postseason.
In an article I wrote earlier this week, I listed why the Eagles are at the top of the mountain this season and why they will likely be the Super Bowl champs when the dust settles on February 12th. Check it out.
Eagles Offense
- No. 9 in passing yards
- No. 5 in rushing yards
- No. 5 in turnovers
- No. 3 in total yards
- No. 3 in points scored
Eagles Defense
- No. 16 in rushing yards allowed
- No. 8 in points allowed
- No. 3 in takeaways
- No. 2 in total yards allowed
- No. 1 in passing yards allowed
But the very last stat, No. 1 in passing yards allowed, surrendering 179.8, versus San Francisco’s 20th-ranked passing defense, allowing 222.9 passing yards per contest, is a major reason why the Eagles win this one going away.
I understand that Brock Purdy has had a sensational run but he will be facing his sternest test this week and I don’t see him holding up against a withering Philadelphia pass rush. He will have to match Jalen Hurts, score for score and although the 49ers' defense is excellent as well, a report from the University of My Eyes shows that their corners are not.
This is a MAX play that has a heavily correlated moneyline wager attached.
Prediction: Eagles 24 - 49ers 16
NFL Pick: Eagles -2 ½ (-108) for 5 units at Heritage Sports
NFL Pick: Eagles ML (-140) for 3 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 6:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
This line has been getting me seasick. It’s rocking back and forth from KC as the favorite to Cincinnati and now back to KC once word got out that Patrick Mahomes was back at practice. Well, I’m glad the Cats are now slight underdogs because Mahomes’ high ankle sprain he suffered last week didn’t magically disappear, he’s just well enough to limp around in practice.
A gimpy Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce don’t equal a healthy Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. I’m not sure how Mahomes is going to avoid an improving Bengal’s pass rush without being able to move effortlessly out of the pocket, turn the edge, or throw on the run. That’s what makes Mahomes so good and so dangerous.
I’m not going to overthink it; I’m going to bet it, and am eschewing the piddly point we are getting for a moneyline wager that will have the books paying me the vig instead of the other way around. And don't forget that all of you Buckeyes can make your Bengals bets at these top Ohio betting sites.
Predicted Score: Bengals 27 - Chiefs 21
NFL Pick: Bengals ML (+107) for 4 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Woodman’s Corner
- Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 12-8, +3.24 units
The Jaguars were the Woodman’s ticket to financial freedom last week as they covered the number as nine-point road dogs in a 27-20 loss to the Chiefs. And although we were both aligned on the Jags last week, this week we are on opposite sides of the wagering fence.
The Woodman is convinced the 49ers are the right side in their battle with the Eagles this week. I, of course, tend to disagree but that’s why there’s chocolate and vanilla. Who’s right, who’s wrong? We’ll know soon enough.
Oh, and Woodman says, “Bet the Farm on the 49ers.”
Woodman's Pick: 49ers +2 ½ (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
