Commanders vs. Texans NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Will Washington Command the Spotlight Again?

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Darrick Forrest #22 of the Washington Commanders celebrates after teammate Jamin Davis #52 recovered a fumble against the Philadelphia Eagles. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP.

The Commanders stole the Week 10 spotlight with a stunning upset of the undefeated Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Let’s review the NFL odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our NFL picks

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Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans 

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium 

Commanders' Week 10 Performance

The age-old NFL axiom holds true for yet another year – every team is beatable.

And we found that out again on Monday night, as the Washington Commanders fell behind early with a turnover that led to an immediate touchdown but rebounded with a stunning 32-21 victory over the Eagles as 11-point underdogs in hostile territory. 

It was an odd game in that there were 53 points scored but nothing statistically impressive on either side.  

Offensive Line

Washington’s Taylor Heinicke had 213 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 pick versus Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts who tossed 175 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, modest numbers by his lofty standards this season.  

And while the Eagles could only muster 94 yards on the ground, the Commanders chewed up real estate and kept the clock ticking with Brian Robinson Jr. leading the way with 86 of Washington’s 152 rushing yards.  

We should point out that Robinson only had a 3.3 yards per carry average which was higher than either Antonio Gibson, Curtis Samuel, or Taylor Heinicke. 

There are now no undefeated teams left and Washington was more than happy to make that announcement. "We had a marvelous time ruining everything," the Commanders tweeted. 

Texans Looking Towards Draft? 

Houston is mired in the muck of the AFC South and currently owns the worst record in the league. The only silver lining is that if the season ended today, Houston would have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.  

Despite taking Texas A&M’s guard, Kenyon Green, at No. 15 last year Houston’s offensive line needs an upgrade, but then again so does just about every other position. 

Therefore, it’s not unthinkable that the Texans might be tanking as opposed to losing. But what many don’t understand is that the players on the field value their jobs and future employment more than they do the team for which they are playing.  

No professional athlete is going to “take one for the team” and drop a pass or miss a tackle because their franchise will move up in the draft. 

Fourth Consecutive Loss

In their last outing, the Texans dropped their fourth straight, a 24-16 decision to the Giants. Davis Mills tossed 319 yards and a touchdown while Dameon Pierce continues to shine, picking up 94 yards and averaging 5.5 yards per carry.  

"Obviously, the frustration is there," Mills said. "No one likes losing, especially me. That's probably the worst feeling I can ever imagine, is losing something when you're putting in all the hours to go out there and win games and it's just not happening."  

Houston is now 1-7-1 straight up and 4-4-1 against the number.  

Commanders vs. Texans: Game Prediction 

This has all the makings of a classic letdown game for the Commanders. They stunned the best team in the league, but let’s not overlook the fact that the Eagles shot themselves in the foot time and time again.  

To their credit, the Commanders were able to capitalize on turnovers, critical penalties, and a host of other things that went so very right for Washington and so very wrong for Philadelphia. 

As for the Texans, they never really get blown out. As poor as their record is, they are .500 ATS and always seem to hang around.  

The public will be champing at the bit to bet on the Commanders after their huge win but I’m seeing a good opportunity to counter with the home dog here.  

Let’s take a look at a few trends to bolster our argument on the side and the total.  

Team Trends 

  • Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. 
  • Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 
  • Commanders are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 

Total Trends 

  • Under is 4-1 in the Commanders' last 5 road games. 
  • Under is 6-2 in the Commanders’ last 8 games overall. 
  • Under is 4-1 in the Texans’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 
  • Under is 4-1 in the Texans’ last 5 games in November. 

Final Picks

Houston won’t have Saquon Barkley to pancake them throughout the afternoon, as he did last Sunday against the Texans’ league-worst rushing defense. Nevertheless, I believe this will be a slow grind with the game being played between the 20s.  

Davis Mills had 319 yards against the Giants last week and he should get his fair share again this week against a pedestrian Washington pass defense.  

Let’s grab the field goal head start with the home team and cash a ticket at the best sportsbooks

Score Prediction: Texans 20 - Commanders 17 

NFL Pick: Texans +3 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Texans +3 (+102)
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NFL Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 40.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.