The Philadelphia Eagles look to move to 9-0 while completing a sweep of the Washington Commanders (4-5) on Monday night. The Eagles already dominated Washington 24-8 in a Week 3 road win.
What changes with Carson Wentz, who took nine sacks that day, being replaced by Taylor Heinicke at quarterback? Does anything change?
The Eagles are an 11-point home favorite in a game with a total of 43.5 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. We have some NFL prop picks for this NFC East matchup.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, November 14, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
- Over/Under 242.2 Passing Yards
- Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Sometimes these betting lines feel like we’re being toyed with. Jalen Hurts just passed for 243 yards in his last game in Houston, and he also had 243 yards in the opener in Detroit. Will he be right on that line for the third time in nine games? We’ll see.
What we do know is he had a season-high 340 passing yards against Washington in Week 3. Hurts had 279 of those yards in the first half as well as all three of his touchdown passes as the Eagles scored all 24 of their points in the second quarter, the quarter they dominate in historic fashion this year.
Hurts did not need to throw much in the second half after the Eagles led 24-0 and won 24-8. This has been the case throughout the season for the Eagles, though they were not dominant in Houston as expected despite the big spread.
Throw, throw and repeat?
But Hurts had a great game already against Washington where he had his most vertical game of the season with his average pass traveling 11.3 yards. On the season, quarterbacks are throwing the ball 9.2 yards down the field against Washington, the second-deepest average target in the league this year.
Washington has also allowed a touchdown pass on 5.5% of passes, the third-worst rate in the league. The 16 touchdown passes allowed by Washington are the second-highest total in the league this year.
Hurts is healthy and so are his weapons. The Washington defense is not one of the worst in the league, but it is mediocre at best. Hurts should be able to throw for about 250 yards and two touchdowns in this one, so we like the overs for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-118) at Bovada
Taylor Heinicke (Commanders)
- Over/Under 212.5 Passing Yards
The Eagles have held six out of eight quarterbacks under 215.5 passing yards this year, including Carson Wentz when he had 211 yards in Week 3 despite an ugly start.
It’s too bad this doesn’t subtract sacks as the under would be a no-brainer after the Eagles sacked Wentz nine times last meeting. Of course, there may have been some extra motivation by the Philadelphia defense to take it to their former quarterback. But this time it is Heinicke, and he is a little more capable of moving around and making plays happen.
But Heinicke only passed for 149 yards against Minnesota last week. His accuracy issues combined with Philadelphia’s great corner play should make it hard for Heinicke to have a successful night with his wide receivers, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.
Looking at the advanced stats on Pro Football Reference, this pick comes down to how much you trust the Eagles to get pressure at home. Including the playoffs, Heinicke has started 20 games:
- When Heinicke’s pressure rate is at least 23%, he has passed for over 212.5 yards in 1-of-10 starts (10%).
- When Heinicke’s pressure rate is below 23%, he has passed for over 212.5 yards in 10-of-10 starts (100%).
- The Eagles rank No. 9 in pressure rate (24.6%) this season.
- Wentz’s pressure rate in Week 3 vs. the Eagles was 40%, his highest in the last two seasons.
I’ll take the pressure and the under for Heinicke.
NFL Pick: Taylor Heinicke Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-121) at Bovada
Running Back Props
Miles Sanders (Eagles)
- Over/Under 68.5 Rushing Yards
Trying to infer anything from Miles Sanders’ past against Washington is difficult. He had 25 rushing yards in 2019 in his first game against Washington, then stepped up to 122 yards in the rematch. He also had a 131-yard game against Washington last season, but in Week 3 this year, he had a season-low 46 yards on 15 carries.
It was the worst rushing game of the season for the Eagles with 72 yards as a team. Every other game has seen the Eagles rush for over 110 yards. It wasn’t for a lack of leading either. The Eagles were up 24-0 at halftime but never scored in the second half.
Still, Sanders has three games in his NFL career with over 120 rushing yards and two are against Washington. This is barely over half of that with 68.5 yards to hit his over. He should be able to do that in a game where the Eagles should still be in control, but maybe this time they score some more in the second half too behind a productive mix of the run and pass.
NFL Pick: Miles Sanders Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Terry McLaurin (Commanders)
- Over/Under 48.5 Receiving Yards
Even though Carson Wentz played a horrible game in Week 3, Terry McLaurin is the only player to have over 80 receiving yards against the Eagles in 2022. He caught a 45-yard bomb in the third quarter when the team was down 24-0 before finishing with 102 yards on six catches. Garbage time still counts for prop picks, fortunately.
The Eagles are no doubt getting great seasons out of corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but a good receiver can break 50 yards on them. For the record, six of the eight No. 1 receiver types the Eagles have faced have had at least 60 yards this year:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions): 64 yards in Week 1
- Terry McLaurin (Commanders): 102 yards in Week 3
- Christian Kirk (Jaguars): 60 yards in Week 4
- Marquise Brown (Cardinals’ No. 1 with DeAndre Hopkins suspended): 78 yards in Week 5
- CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys): 68 yards in Week 6
- Phillip Dorsett (Texans’ No. 1 with Brandin Cooks out): 69 yards in Week 9
Philadelphia’s biggest stops were holding Justin Jefferson (Vikings) to 48 yards and not allowing the Steelers to get Diontae Johnson (35 yards) or George Pickens (zero catches) going. Tight end Pat Freiermuth did have 57 yards though as the No. 1 receiver role in Pittsburgh is a committee approach these days.
But more often than not, a top receiver can put up 50 yards on this defense. McLaurin averages 81.4 yards per game in seven career meetings with the Eagles too. We’ll take this as one of the only decent-looking overs for the Washington offense in this one.
NFL Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
A.J. Brown (Eagles)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A.J. Brown has caught a touchdown in three consecutive games, and he usually shows up in prime-time games like this one. He had a touchdown in Week 3 in his first NFL game against Washington’s defense.
We already mentioned this defense has allowed 16 touchdown passes, one of the highest totals in the league. If Hurts is going to throw a couple, Brown is almost certainly going to be on the receiving end of at least one of them.
NFL Pick: A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110) at Bovada
Longshot Touchdown Scorers
We already picked Brown as a touchdown scorer in this game, but here is a longshot choice for each team as well:
Eagles Defense/Special Teams
Despite playing eight games due to a bye week, the Eagles still lead the NFL with 18 takeaways. The defense has forced at least one turnover in every game, including a league-high 12 interceptions.
But even with 18 takeaways, the Eagles have not returned any of them for a touchdown since James Bradberry’s pick-six in Detroit back in Week 1.
Heinicke is no stranger to making some awful turnovers. He already has a pick-six this year against Green Bay. He had two turnovers returned for touchdowns against the Cowboys last year (one in two different games)
The Eagles bullying the Commanders on a Monday night to go to 9-0 could include a return touchdown. It’s worth a play with this NFL odds of +440.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia D/ST Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+440) at Bovada
Logan Thomas (Commanders)
Few teams get less production out of the tight end position than Washington this year, but Logan Thomas is the leading receiver at that position with 13 catches for 106 yards and one touchdown this year.
When Thomas is healthy, he plays around two-thirds of the snaps. He had three targets without a catch against Minnesota last week. In 2020, Thomas caught a touchdown in both games against the Eagles for Washington.
With the difficult matchups on the outside to the wideouts, a little 1-yard touchdown off play-action to the tight end might pay off for the Commanders here.
NFL Pick: Logan Thomas Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+575) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.