Commanders vs. Eagles NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Picks: Expect Defensive Battle

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C.J. Gardner-Johnson #23 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs a pass interception against the Houston Texans. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

The Monday night game in Week 10 looks to be a mismatch as the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles are double-digit home favorites over the Washington Commanders. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks

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Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

Monday, November 14, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

Per usual, ESPN has the Monday night telecast. However, no ManningCast this week so that’s a shame. Philadelphia looks for the season sweep as Week 3 in Virginia, the Eagles were 6-point favorites on the NFL odds and beat Washington 24-8. All 24 Eagles points were scored in the second quarter.

Jalen Hurts was 22-for-35 for 340 yards and three scores. Former Heisman winner DeVonta Smith had one of his best games as a pro with eight catches for 169 yards and a score. Philly usually lives and dies by the run but had just 72 yards on 30 carries.  

Carson Wentz was the Commanders’ QB then, he’s out injured now, and threw for 211 yards. Terry McLaurin caught six passes for 102 yards. Washington didn’t find the end zone until about two minutes remained. The Eagles are 7-3-1 against the spread on NFL picks in the past 11 meetings. 

Commanders Still Heinicke’s Team 

While Washington is last in the NFC East at 4-5, it actually would be tied for first in the NFC South. No one expected the East to be this good in 2022. 

The Commanders had a three-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 20-17 home loss to Minnesota and former Washington QB Kirk Cousins. Coach Ron Rivera’s team led 17-7 early in the fourth quarter but Greg Joseph won it on a 28-yard field goal with 12 seconds left.

A penalty on defensive lineman John Ridgeway on Joseph's initial field-goal attempt with under two minutes remaining allowed the Vikings to run the clock down further and effectively ice the game. 

Backup QB Taylor Heinicke, who will start again here, was 15-for-28 for 149 yards, two TDs and a pick. Curtis Samuel had one of the catches of the year, a 49-yard TD that was thrown into triple coverage yet still Samuel brought it down. 

Washington's Defense

Washington has played well defensively in recent weeks. The Commanders haven’t allowed more than 21 points in the past five, and could get back 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young from injury this week. He tore up his knee late last season but did return to practice last week.

The team simply didn’t think he was ready to face the Vikings. Even without Young, Minnesota was held to its second-lowest point total on the season, four below its season average and gained almost 15% fewer yards than their average output. 

Injury wise, good-looking rookie wideout Jahan Dotson (hamstring) missed a fifth consecutive game and starting Cole Holcomb (foot) a second in a row. The Commanders are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four games. The under is 6-1 in their past seven. 

Eagles 17-0? Highly Doubtful 

Could we see the first team to finish a regular season at 17-0? I highly doubt it and so do oddsmakers: Philadelphia is +1100 to do it and -2200 to come up short at BMR’s top-rated books. I believe the Eagles lose at least twice: On a short week next Sunday at Indianapolis (even though the Colts are a mess) and Week 16 at Dallas. 

Philly is a -450 favorite at BMR’s top-rated books to win the division, which it should, and +175 leader in the conference. Not sure about that. The team’s over-under win total is an NFL-high 14.5, with the over a slight favorite. 

The Eagles didn’t play very well for the first half of their game at awful Houston on Thursday night in Week 9 but pulled away for a 29-17 victory to improve to 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.

The Eagles are the 29th team in the Super Bowl era to start 8-0 and the other 28 all made the playoffs. Fifteen of those teams went on to win their conference and eight won the Super Bowl. 

Roster Stats

Jalen Hurts was 21-for-27 for 243 yards and two scores, and he’s a +250 second favorite to Patrick Mahomes for NFL MVP, Philly hasn’t had an MVP in the Super Bowl era.

AJ Brown caught six passes for 59 yards and a TD and is just the third Eagle since the 1970 merger to record 700-plus receiving yards and six-plus touchdowns through eight games, joining Terrell Owens (2004, 2005) and Jeremy Maclin (2014). 

Cornerback CJ Gardner-Johnson, acquired from Detroit just 10 days before the season opener, had an interception in the win. He has recorded at least one interception in four consecutive games, racking up all five of his picks (most in NFL) on the season in that span.

Philly Is Family

The whole secondary has been great as Philly ranks third in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed, 177.6 yards per game. Even more impressive considering that the Eagles have not trailed in the second half of a game. 

"We feed off of each other. We are brothers. If one person eats, we let him eat," Gardner-Johnson said. "We all eat and at the end of the day there is a plate for everybody, not just a plate for one person. "

"When you have that type of mindset, you go out there and play for each other and let everything fall where it may." 

Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its past four at home, but I like the total more than the side here. The under is 6-0 in Philly’s past six when allowing less than 150 yards in its previous game. 

Score Prediction: Eagles 24 - Commanders 14 

NFL Pick: Under 44 Points (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 44 Points (-110)
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