Colts vs. Patriots NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Pats Need Sack Attack

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Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots sacks Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP.

The Colts will invade Foxboro on Sunday afternoon and they will need to focus on the Patriots’ sack attack if they have any chance of winning. Let’s check out the NFL odds on this game and analyze which side is the right side to keep covering our NFL picks!

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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium

What You Should Know

The Patriots evened their record to 4-4 straight up (4-3-1 ATS) last week with a big win in a hostile territory over the New York Jets.

It was a stark departure from their lackluster performance the week before against the Bears, in which they were trounced, 34-14, in front of the fan friendlies and saw the removal of recently returned starting quarterback, Mac Jones, for upstart rookie backup Bailey Zappe.

Entering last Sunday’s contest, Pats head coach Bill Belichick removed all doubt as to who his starting quarterback was and returned Mac Jones under center. Jones delivered an erratic performance, connecting on 24-of-35 for 194 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

However, had it not been for a roughing the passer penalty called on the Jets as Jones unleashed what became a negated pick-six, things could have been much different than their 22-17 victory over New York.

Rhamondre Stevenson has wrested the starting tailback job from Damien Harris and had 71 yards rushing and 72 yards receiving on 7 catches, making him a viable dual threat out of the backfield, something he hadn’t been in the past.

Colts Can't Close the Deal

With just over 11 minutes left to play, the Colts had a relatively comfortable 9-point lead over the Commanders. After all, Washington is not known for a formidable offense and their defense, without Chase Young, has been pedestrian-at-best this year. It looked like the Colts might win by a comfortable margin for the first time all season.

But only good and elite teams know how to close out a game and this iteration of the Indianapolis Colts does not fall into either category. In the last 5 minutes of the game, the Commanders would kick a field goal and subsequently score a touchdown with 22 seconds left in the game, leaving the Colts and their fans stunned yet again in a 17-16 loss.

Indy’s 24-year-old quarterback, Sam Ehlinger, got the first start of his career and his debut was what you might expect from an untested sixth-round pick. He went 17-of-23 for 201 yards with no touchdowns and more importantly, no picks.

Unlike the veteran he replaced, Matt Ryan, he didn’t fumble nor hurt the Colts. He just didn’t provide the offensive spark they so desperately needed. It appears he will start again this Sunday against the Patriots and beyond if we are to believe head coach Frank Reich.

Team Trends

  • Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 9.
  • Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
  • Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Total Trends

  • Under is 5-0 in Colts' last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Under is 7-0 in Colts’ last 7 road games.
  • Under is 10-1 in Colts’ last 11 vs. AFC.
  • Under is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games in November.

Colts vs. Patriots: Game Prediction

This is a game between two mediocre teams. They are what their record says they are, to tear a page out of Bill Parcells’ book, and that has never been truer than when discussing this year’s Colts and Patriots. But the key to this game will be found in the trenches. Mac Jones will need protection and it has to be better than last week when he was sacked 6 times and hurried many more.

The Colts are in the middle of the pack in sacks, averaging 2.37 sacks per game but if this suspect Patriots’ offensive line is without center David Andrews again, it could get dicey for Jones with DeForest Buckner, Yannick Ngakoue, and Kwity Paye (if he’s healthy) on the hunt for a scalp.

And while we are talking about sacks, the Colts are tied for second with Washington in “sacks-allowed” with 26 which is good news for New England sack-masters Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise Jr.

The offenses on both sides are no threat, to begin with, as Indianapolis ranks 30th in points scored averaging a paltry 16.1 PPG while New England checks in with the 17th-ranked offense averaging 22.1 PPG. But both defenses are decent with the Colts holding the slight edge allowing 19.6 PPG (9th) while the Pats allow 20.4 PPG (13th).

Final Picks

This looks like a low-scoring affair played between the 20s with the field goal kickers and punters getting a workout.

I am siding with Indianapolis as we are getting a generous head start by the best sportsbooks Over at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review) at +6 while all of the other majors are dealing at +5.5 as of this writing.

Score Prediction: Patriots 20 - Colts 17

NFL Pick: Colts +6 (-109) at GTbets

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Colts +6 (-109)
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NFL Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 40.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.