Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LVII Best Value Props: Expect Penalties?

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NFL Pick: Both teams to score 19.5 – Yes (-179) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Both Teams to Score 19.5 – Yes (-179)
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Super Bowl LVII is a great matchup featuring the top-ranked Kansas City Chiefs offense against the top-ranked pass defense of the Philadelphia Eagles. But there is also a crucial matchup between the No. 3 offense of the Eagles against a young Kansas City defense that has played better in recent weeks.

Today, we are looking at the game and team prop picks available at Bovada for this matchup that still has the Eagles as a 1-point favorite with a total of 51 points, according to the latest NFL odds.

Our goal is to hunt for the best value for your NFL picks as there are so many different props available for the Super Bowl. Figuring out which ones are worth your bet is more important than usual.

And if you’re planning of supporting your local teams, don’t forget to check out our guides on the best betting sites in Missouri and Pennsylvania.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium

Both Teams to Score 19.5

This is a prop that would have hit in 10-of-13 playoff games for Kansas City in the Patrick Mahomes era. He has led his team to at least 22 points in all but one playoff game, and everyone knows which one that was. But even in that 31-9 Super Bowl loss two years ago to Tampa Bay, the Chiefs had a shot at two miraculous touchdown catches and the receivers just did not come through with the catches. Mahomes was running for his life that night, but at least the offensive line is healthy this year.

The fact is both quarterbacks in this game have led their teams to at least 20 points in every game this season except for one each. It just so happens both scored 17 points in Indianapolis.

But with the Chiefs looking for redemption for 31-9 and these teams playing a 42-30 game last season, this feels like one of the safer bets for your NFL picks this week.

NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 19.5 - Yes (-179) at Bovada

Eagles: Under 1.5 Total Field Goals

In the regular season, the Chiefs only allowed 23 field goals, which ranked as the fourth fewest in the league. Part of that was because they were so bad in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on 67.3% of trips (ranked 31st).

What do we know about the Eagles? They had a league-high 32 rushing touchdowns and are very good at running it in the red zone with Jalen Hurts and the stable of backs. They also are not afraid to go for it on fourth down, and look for Nick Sirianni to embrace that aggressive nature knowing he is going up against Mahomes and field goals will not cut it.

The Eagles also made just 22 field goals in the regular season, the second-fewest in the league. They have made one field goal in each playoff game so far. There should be good value on that happening again as the Eagles hunt for touchdowns in this game.

NFL Pick: Eagles Under 1.5 Total Field Goals (-106) at Bovada

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Eagles Under 1.5 Total Field Goals (-106)
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Most First Downs

When these teams met last year, it was a very offensive game, with the Chiefs edging out the Eagles 31-30 in first downs. This season, the Chiefs have outgained the opponent in first downs in 12-of-19 games.

But the Eagles, with a better defense, have been able to outgain the opponent in first downs in 15 of the 17 games with Hurts at quarterback, including in eight straight games.

The last time the Eagles lost the first down battle with Hurts was in the only loss he has this year against Washington, an offense that somehow started 12-of-16 on third down that night with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback.

The Chiefs are a formidable foe obviously, but it could be a game where they need to hit some chunk plays instead of stringing together methodical drives against this great defense. We know the Eagles are unlikely to stray from a balanced attack where Hurts can run for some first downs if need be as well.

Let’s go with the Eagles to have more first downs.

NFL Pick: Most First Downs – Eagles (-126) at Bovada

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Most First Downs – Eagles (-126)
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Jalen Hurts’ First Super Bowl Pass

In his last six starts, Jalen Hurts has completed his first pass of the game. But with the betting odds on him not doing that set at +175 in this game, this feels like a good spot to count on some old-fashioned first Super Bowl jitters on that first throw.

Hurts has had his five highest games in bad throw rate in his last five starts, so he has been off a little more than usual down the stretch. Maybe the Eagles try a deep ball right off the bat, or maybe he just sails one high to get the nerves out.

One thing we have learned is you can never tell what a quarterback is going to do in his first Super Bowl. We’ll take a shot here that Hurts’ first attempt is a misfire.

NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts’ First Pass Complete – No (+175) at Bovada

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Jalen Hurts’ First Pass Complete – No (+175)
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Will Both Teams Lead in the Fourth Quarter?

This is another interesting one with a big difference in the Yes (+259) and No (-371) options. The fact is the 2022 Chiefs have had a fourth-quarter lead in all 19 games this season, which has only been done by three other teams in NFL history (1984 49ers, 2007 Patriots, and 2013 Seahawks). Pretty historic company, and the Chiefs would be the first to do it in 20 games in one season if they can do it here.

Seventeen of the last 19 Super Bowls have been within one score in the fourth quarter, so they usually are close. But the Eagles are also still favored to win this game, and teams favored by exactly 1.5 points with a total over 50 points are 18-7 (.720) in NFL history.

A back-and-forth fourth quarter may be a pipe dream, but this postseason absolutely deserves one as the only game with a fourth-quarter lead change so far was Chargers vs. Jaguars, and Jacksonville took the lead on the final snap of that 27-point comeback, so we did not even see if the Chargers could answer.

Bet on the drama, bet on both teams to lead in the fourth with your prop picks.

NFL Pick: Will Both Teams Lead in the Fourth Quarter – Yes (+259) at Bovada

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Will Both Teams Lead in the Fourth Quarter – Yes (+259)
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Will Both Teams Have the Lead in the First Half?

This one is even better than the fourth quarter prop as it has a higher chance of success of hitting. Again, you have to appreciate Mahomes and the Chiefs here. Even in Super Bowl LV when they were blown out 31-9, they still led 3-0 before things fell apart.

The Chiefs have had a lead in 100 of their last 101 games, a remarkable run. The only time Mahomes has failed to get a lead in a game was against the Titans last year when Tennessee won 27-3 in a wire-to-wire blowout.

The Eagles are a dominant second-quarter team, so it would not be surprising at all to see the Chiefs lead early with the Eagles also taking a lead in the first half. This is a good bet.

NFL Pick: Will Both Teams Have the Lead in the First Half – Yes (+127) at Bovada

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Will Both Teams Have the Lead in the First Half – Yes (+127)
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Philly Special Part Deux?

You can bet on over 2.5 players to throw a pass in this game, and that feels like a pick with some value. With the way the Eagles have knocked out Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy in games this year, you can never discount the possibility of Chad Henne making an appearance if something happened to Mahomes here. The Eagles seem to have this luck of drawing backup quarterbacks in the Hurts era.

That is one angle of this. The other is this is the first Eagles Super Bowl since 2017 when Doug Pederson and Nick Foles made history with the Philly Special, a trick play where Foles caught a touchdown on fourth down from Trey Burton. The Patriots also tried a pass in that game with Tom Brady unable to haul it in from Danny Amendola.

Last year, the Rams and Bengals each had a non-quarterback attempt a pass with Joe Mixon throwing a 6-yard touchdown to Tee Higgins.

Unless I am giving Nick Sirianni too much credit for an appreciation of Philadelphia history, he should give the Eagles another shot at a Philly Special here. The offensive linemen will love it as some of them were on that 2017 team.

NFL Pick: Over 2.5 Total Players to Have a Pass Attempt (+150) at Bovada

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Over 2.5 Total Players to Have a Pass Attempt (+150)
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Team to Throw First Interception

Believe it or not, there has been an interception thrown in 22 straight Super Bowls. The last Super Bowl without a pick was the 1999 Rams (Kurt Warner) against the Titans (Steve McNair).

More likely than not, someone is getting intercepted in this game, and you can bet on the team it will happen to. We think the right play is Kansas City, as Mahomes has been intercepted four times in the Super Bowl (two in each appearance) as he has always had the tougher defensive matchup and tries to do too much at times. Nothing about that has changed here as the Eagles are the better defense and better pass rush that will get Mahomes off the mark at times.

The Eagles have some great players in the secondary who can take advantage of a risky pass. Hurts may throw an interception too, but he rarely does that. The Chiefs are the right call here.

NFL Pick: Team to Throw First Interception – Chiefs (-121) at Bovada

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Team to Throw First Interception – Chiefs (-121)
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Total Number of Accepted Penalties Made in the Game by Both Teams

Setting the over/under for accepted penalties at 10.0 feels like stealing here. Carl Cheffers is the head referee for Super Bowl LVII, and while he has an all-star crew working with him instead of his normal crew, this is a ref who loves calling penalties.

Cheffers especially loves calling them on the Chiefs:

  • Cheffers penalized the Chiefs 10 times for 102 yards in Houston in his last game involving Kansas City.
  • Cheffers called 16 total penalties in Kansas City’s 30-29 win over the Raiders in Week 5, but it was an egregious roughing the passer call on Chris Jones in the second quarter that riled up the team and the crowd to help the Chiefs rally from a 17-0 hole.
  • In Super Bowl LV between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, Cheffers was the head referee, and he penalized the Chiefs 11 times for 120 yards in that game, including some phantom defensive pass interference calls in the second quarter when the game was still close.
  • Cheffers’ accepted penalty count in his last 10 games involving the Chiefs (all Mahomes era): 14, 16, 12, 17, 15, 18, 17, 16, 15, and 11.

NFL Pick: Total Number of Accepted Penalties Made in The Game by Both Teams – Over 10.0 (-125) at Bovada

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Total Number of Accepted Penalties Made in The Game by Both Teams – Over 10.0 (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.