NFL Pick: Two-Legged 6-Point Teaser (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is trending to be just the third Super Bowl to have a total of over 50 points and a spread under 3 points. But this would be the third time in five years the game settles in those ranges after Super Bowls 53 (won 13-3 by the Patriots over the Rams) and 54 (won 31-20 by the Chiefs over the 49ers).
The Eagles remain a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 51 points. This game could be close and high scoring, but if recent Super Bowl scores have told us anything, it is that anything is possible. Who saw the Eagles getting into a 41-33 game in 2017 or the Chiefs failing to score a touchdown two years ago against Tampa Bay?
With that in mind, we have our 6-point teaser picks for both the total and spread in this Super Bowl. We feel so good about these picks that you can play them as singles on the regular line at any of the top-rated Missouri and Pennsylvania betting sites and some may allow you to parlay them together.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
These teams last met in Week 4 of the 2021 season. The Chiefs won 42-30 in Philadelphia with one of the most balanced offensive performances of the Patrick Mahomes era. The head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and quarterback are unchanged from that matchup for both sides, though the teams have made some other significant player changes.
Spread Teaser: Eagles +4.5
This pick essentially comes down to which team are you more worried about getting blown out. For Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, 11 of his 12 career losses have come by 6-plus points. That includes two double-digit losses this year in games where the offense gave up a turnover for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles scored a touchdown with 4 seconds left last season, or else they would have lost 42-23 to the Chiefs. The 12-point loss is still the fourth worst for Sirianni, who also lost his first playoff game by 16 points in Tampa Bay last year.
The Chiefs are only 7-11-1 ATS this year. In six evening kickoffs this season, the Chiefs are 6-0, but five of those games were won by 1-to-3 points. The Chiefs would have won Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers by a final of 24-20, but Damien Williams just had to rip off a 38-yard touchdown run with 1:12 left. If he went down short, the Chiefs could have just kneeled a few times to expire the clock.
Why Not Tease Chiefs +7.5?
Mahomes has lost just 4-of-93 starts (4.3%) by 8-plus points, but it is not about that. It is the blowout factor. If a team is getting blown out in this game, it likely is the Chiefs, who already lost a Super Bowl 31-9 two years ago. There are a lot of red flags in this matchup when you consider the history of top-ranked offenses getting punched in the mouth in the playoffs by an elite defense:
- The Eagles had 70 sacks in the regular season, many of the best coverage metrics in the secondary, and have held their two playoff opponents to a combined 14 points.
- The Chiefs are dealing with health concerns for their skill players, including Mahomes (ankle), Travis Kelce (back), JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), and Kadarius Toney (hamstring/ankle).
- Mahomes is trying to become the first quarterback to lead the league in passing yards and win a Super Bowl in the same season.
- The Chiefs rank No. 21 in points per drive allowed on defense, which would be the third worst for any Super Bowl winner since at least 1989 (and likely of all time).
- The Chiefs were the worst offense at converting third-and-1 this season, and they are far less likely to go for a fourth down than the Eagles, who had the second-most conversions (22) and are unstoppable on the quarterback sneak, the cheat code plays the Chiefs will not run with Mahomes.
- The Chiefs allow the second-highest rate of touchdowns in the red zone (67.3%) this year and they allowed 33 touchdown passes, four more than any other defense.
- In the regular season, the Chiefs were minus-3 in turnover differential while the Eagles were plus-8.
Great teams beat great quarterbacks. Defense wins championships. Football teams are built in the trenches. All these old NFL fables can apply here if the Eagles dominate this game like some think is a real possibility. There is also the fact that teams who are exactly a 1.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 50-plus points are 18-7 SU (72%).
The Chiefs have gone 32 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, which is only two games shy of the NFL record. But the playoffs are where streaks often end, especially for teams built like the Chiefs. The Eagles may not have the track record yet, but after 31-9, the Chiefs have lost the benefit of the doubt that they will not get blown out in a game like this.
Go with the Eagles for your NFL picks.
Total Teaser: Over 45
Three of the last four Super Bowls did not exceed 43 points, but the one that did had Mahomes involved. Even though the scoring was down in the NFL this year, these are the No. 1 and No. 3 scoring teams. These quarterbacks have put up at least 20 points in every game this season except when each took a trip to Indianapolis and scored 17, a favorite footnote of the season.
There are plenty of reasons to tease the over to 45 points:
- Since 2018, 73.9% of Kansas City’s games against teams that made the playoffs had over 45 points (34-of-46 games).
- Since 2018, the over is 8-3 in games where the Chiefs are an underdog.
- Since 2018, the over is 31-22 (58.5%) in Kansas City games where the teams had equal rest, which is the highest rate in the league.
- Since 2021, the over is 8-2 in Philadelphia games against AFC opponents.
- Since 2021, the over is 12-5 (70.5%) in Kansas City games away from Arrowhead, the highest rate in the league.
- Philadelphia has allowed at least 32 points in four games this year, including three times against some of the few quality offenses it faced (Lions, Packers, Cowboys).
- Seven of the eight times the Chiefs scored 30 points this season, it happened on the road.
Mahomes has only lost three games in his career where the opponent did not score at least 27 points. We’ll play the NFL odds and go over 45 here because even if the final is 27-20 and falls short of the under, it will cover the teaser here.
Teaser Picks
- Eagles -1.5 to +4.5
- Chiefs vs. Eagles Over 51 to Over 45
NFL Pick: Two-Legged 6-Point Teaser Pick (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
