The topic of this article is very interesting when thinking about when making NFL picks.
The opening line was a Pick ’em, then quickly Philadelphia moved to a -2.5 before recently settling at -1.5.
Let’s take a deeper look at what this can mean against the NFL betting odds for the first half of the Super Bowl.
Remember, NFL fans from the Show Me State or the City of Brotherly Love who are looking to make a wager on Super Bowl LVII should be sure to check out our top-rated Missouri or Pennsylvania betting sites.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
Super Bowl LVII
In attempting to determine who might have an edge in the first 15 minutes of a Super Bowl, one has to consider more than one factor.
Nerves are always a big part, because as hard as the players try to treat this as – just another game – yet, once you hit the field you know it is not.
In this case, Kansas City should have a bit of an edge because this is their third SB appearance in four tries.
While Philadelphia just won the Super Bowl just five short years ago in 2017, they've almost had a complete roster turnover since that time.
Only a handful of players on this current Super Bowl roster were Eagles back then:
- RT Lane Johnson
- C Jason Kelce
- OG Isaac Seumalo
- DE Brandon Graham
- DT Fletcher Cox
- LS Rick Lovato
- PK Jake Elliot
- DE Derek Barnett (IR)
First Quarter Betting
One thing we have seen from both coaching staffs this season, their early game preparation is impeccable. Coaches Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni have come up with innovative strategies to place their opponents on the defensive.
Philadelphia in particular has been outstanding on opening drives because they are not married to one principle.
If an opposing club has shown, for example – a light box – to play against the pass and shows fewer players in the box or perhaps an overload to one side at the line of scrimmage, Jalen Hurts will call the run play after run play, and the Eagles have had success.
If the opponent checks out of that defense and moves a safety up, Hurts will use the long ball to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, looking for a chunk play or score, and has scored repeatedly as a result.
Both Teams are Adept at Creating Mismatches
Kansas City has not scored as often on opening drives, but Reid and company make swift alterations based on what they just saw and then attack, usually with Patrick Mahomes finding a weakness or sharing the ball with a variety of receivers.
As far as scoring, Philadelphia was fourth in first-quarter points in the league at 5.8 per game and Kansas City was fifth at 5.4 points in the opening stanza.
The total of Over 9.5 (-130) seems exploitable, but something else appears even better.
Best Bet To Make Early?
With two great offensive minds with a myriad of weapons and versatile quarterbacks, anything seems possible in the opening quarter.
Nevertheless, if one team is ahead after 15 minutes, look at the live betting odds to win the game, as the team ahead has won 12 consecutive Super Bowls.
First Half Wagering
By the second quarter, whatever nerves either team had should be knocked out of them just by playing the game.
Points have been hard to come by against both the Eagles and Chiefs. Philly has permitted just 12.5 PPG in their past four outings and K.C. has conceded just 17.4 PPG in their last five contests.
Maybe that holds true, yet, on the season, these are the top two highest-scoring clubs in the NFL at the half.
- Philadelphia 18.2
- Kansas City 15.5
The current halftime total is 24 or 24.5 at various top-rated online sportsbooks.
The 24 points are juiced towards the over 24 at about (-120), largely because that is a common number with 14-10 a very possible outcome, with these two squads leading the NFL in scoring touchdowns.
At 24.5, it dips to the under (-120). Granted, a random missed extra point could screw up either score leading to a 13-10 first-half score.
However, 25 points seem like a dead number, and given each team’s propensity to find the endzone, other numbers such as the following have to be taken into account:
- 26 (13-13)
- 27 (14-13)
- 28 (14-14)
If you are thinking of a higher-scoring first half, over 24.5 (+100) has the best value.
This can be further supported by the Chiefs' 6-0 over record in the 1st half Total wagers in away games vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are 7-1 over in the 1st half Total wagers off one or more unders.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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