Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Best Bets: Must-Win Game for Los Angeles

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The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a tough loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10 and will have to bounce back quickly.

They host the 7-2 Kansas Chiefs who lead the AFC West and need to win this game to keep pace. That’ll be easier said than done as Kansas City has been rolling lately.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 08:20 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

Chiefs Looking Really Good

The Chiefs won their 4th consecutive game after beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-17 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score. Kansas City has won five of their last six and looked like they were back to their best against the Jags. After being taken to overtime by the Titans last week, the Chiefs came out on a mission in the first half of this game.

In Week 11, they come into this game against the Chargers as -7 road favorites at the NFL odds, which is a big number for a divisional matchup.

These teams played in Kansas City in Week 2 in a game that ended 27-24 in the Chiefs' favor. Kansas City was actually trailing 17-7 at one point early in the 3rd quarter before outscoring the Chargers 17-7 the rest of the way.

Chargers' Offense Not Playing to Herbert’s Strengths

There are a few issues with the Chargers this season with injuries being one of them. Health always seems to be an issue for this franchise and this season is no different with the injury to Justin Herbert’s ribs.

He suffered the injury with five minutes left in the game his team ended up losing to Kansas City back in Week 2. While it might seem like that’s the reason he hasn’t lived up to the high expectations, the problem is a little deeper.

While the rib injury is definitely a factor, the play-calling is another. At the moment, Herbert has the third-lowest average depth of target of any starting quarterback. Only Matt Ryan and Daniel Jones are worse and those are not quarterbacks that belong in the same conversation as Herbert on any level.

Almost everything for the Chargers is short and intermediate and you can sometimes see the frustration in Herbert’s game when he throws deep into double coverage.

Chargers and Over Are the Plays

Although the Chiefs look much better lately, asking them to win a divisional road game by a margin will be tough. This game means way more to the Chargers who need this win to keep pace in the division.

They’re also not guaranteed a playoff spot as they currently sit in 8th in the AFC and another loss would surely have them on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.

The Chargers' short passing game will help negate the threat of Chris Jones for the Chiefs. They have proven in the past that they can keep up with Kansas City offensively. Following the best sportsbooks, I’m taking the Chargers +7 in this spot.

As for the total, it’s really hard to take the Under in this matchup because these teams always seem to put up points when they face each other. Their last game ended with a total of 51 despite the first quarter ending 3-0. Last season both regular season matchups exceeded 50 as well.

I’m also taking the Over 49.5 for my NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Chargers +7 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Chargers +7 (-110)
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NFL Pick: Over 49.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 49.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.