After having 2 winning teams play in London for the 1st time 2 weeks ago, it is back to normal with a couple of AFC squads that have 2-5 records. Both Denver and Jacksonville had chances to win this past Sunday, they just could not get it done.
The Jaguars are making their 9th appearance in London and if you wonder why, Jacksonville owner Shahid Khan signed a partnership with the English Football Association to play there and he has various business interests. Denver is making their 3rd trip across the pond.
Which way to lean at the top-rated sportsbooks?
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 9:30 AM EDT at Wembley Stadium
What to Expect From Denver
Among the many disappointing teams in the NFL, this season is Denver. A coaching change and adding Russell Wilson was presumed the proper elixir to turn the Broncos into a playoff team.
Instead, Wilson has played befuddled football with his outfit not fitting into rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s system-oriented offense. Wilson has always been a playmaker and creates which doesn’t work as well in this system.
Though Denver was supposed to have a talented wide receiver group, collectively, they are not precise route-runners and have issues creating separation.
The Denver defense might not be the quality of their Super Bowl season of a few years ago, yet, they are in the Top 5 in the league in the fewest points allowed and yardage allowed.
What to Expect From Jacksonville
Since starting 2-1, Jacksonville has returned to what we expect of the team from this North Florida group in losing 4 in a row. If you want to understand the Jaguars, their loss to the New York Giants last week had all the components.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence had 310 yards passing, but was barely over 50% on pass completions (22 of 43). He missed several easy short throws that you have to make at this level.
Running back Travis Etienne Jr. had 114 yards rushing and a touchdown, yet, if he tucked the pigskin away, he would have 3 more rushing yards and another score instead of fumbling into the end zone, costing his team 7 points which could have led to a victory.
The Jaguars’ defense was just outside the Top 10 in total defense, however, they allowed 436 yards to a Giants offense that was averaging 317. Everyone in the NFL knows QB Daniel Jones is a threat to run on the perimeter, except evidently Jacksonville, as he rushed for 107 yards on 11 carries.
If Jacksonville fixed any one of these elements, they likely beat the Giants. If you look at all 5 of the Jags' losses, they find ways to beat themselves.
Who Covers the Spread?
The early week betting odds have Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite. We don’t know if that will include Wilson possibly playing or not. Because of problems for both teams on offense and not knowing the Denver quarterback situation, we will go with what we expect and what we know at the moment.
If Wilson does play, we would take the points because Jacksonville could get burned on big plays, especially if Wilson gets out of the pocket. Trusting the Jaguars at more than a field-goal favorite doesn’t make sense.
With Wilson, let’s make it 21-19 Denver for NFL picks, with him and the defense being the reason they win.
Without Wilson, we’ll side with Jacksonville 20-16.
What Is the Right Side for Totals?
Again, there are variables the total was sent out at 40. If this was lowered to 39.5 or 39, nobody would roll their eyes.
The Broncos are on an 18-6 Under roll and the final score with Wilson playing is spot on the current number. We’ll go with the aforementioned breakdown by the Jacksonville defense leading to points for Denver. We will live with the 40 points but are firmly convinced the total settles in the upper 30s and will lean toward an Over.
If Rypien starts again and plays we have to go Under, not trusting him to lead his team to touchdowns.
NFL Pick: Over 40 (-108) at Heritage Sports
What Prop Bets Appear Safe?
Because it seems there is a dearth of playmakers in this AFC encounter, you will have to think outside the box to find winning prop situations.
For example, consider Lawrence, Wilson, or Rypien (whoever starts) as Over candidates for an interception at Over/Under 0.5 for NFL picks. If Wilson plays, look at his rushing total, as he’s beaten the NFL odds in his past 3 games for the Over.
Though there will not be an Over/Under prop for this, if there were a prop for dumb decisions by coach Doug Pederson (Eagles fans know) as graded by Jacksonville fans, the Over would be an easy winner.
NFL Prop Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions (Odds TBD)
NFL Prop Pick: Russell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions (Odds TBD)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.