Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL Week 13 Picks: Arguments for Both Sides of the SNF Spread

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Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes #15 in the game against the Buffalo Bills. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

The AFC West is weird. As we head into week 13 of the now 18 week season, every team is above .500 in the division… but it doesn’t feel like it.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, December 5, 2021 – 08:20 PM EST at GEHA Field in Arrowhead Stadium

With the Las Vegas Raiders dealing with *waves arms* everything, the Los Angeles Chargers collapsing quicker than Ja Rule’s career post 50 Cent feud, the Chiefs looking way too human for my or anyone else’s comfort and the Denver Broncos just existing, the AFC West is bonkers.

On Sunday night the Chiefs are coming off a bye in the midst of a four-game winning streak, the best run they’ve had all season.

Patrick Mahomes looking more like the quarterback we fell in love with and not the man who was masquerading as him earlier in the season (I don’t know how you can get catfished with a Quarterback, but I think that’s what happened), throwing for over 250 yards in his last three games, including a 406-yard day against the Raiders.

When going up against teams with a winning record, the Chiefs are at 3-4 this season, all three coming in their most recent winning streak. The Broncos are faring a bit better this season as they are 2-2, with both wins coming against common opponents the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers (Chiefs beat the Cowboys, but lost to the Chargers).

Both teams have impressive +/- on the season with the Chiefs +31 and the Broncos at +32 (5th and 6th in the AFC respectively), but in the last three weeks, the Chiefs have faced three high powered offenses in Green Bay, Dallas, and Las Vegas keeping them to 30 combined points.

Meanwhile, Denver has given up 42 points across the last three, one of which being the Cowboys who the Chiefs held to under 10 points for the only time in the 2021 season. The Broncos have also given up more than 10 points in their last seven games, not a great sign despite the team being 3rd in points against so far this season.

This game comes down to Patrick Mahomes and only Patrick Mahomes. We can look at stats, we can look at trends, we can look at everything else under the sun under a nuclear microscope, but it won’t mean a damn thing because Patrick Mahomes is still the ultimate outlier

With the division race tightening up, a primetime home game, and the Chiefs aiming to lock in a division that is a little too close for he and Andy Reid’s comfort, I have a suspicion that Mahomes will be really locked in for this one and will do what he can to have an emphatic victory in Kansas City.

And while Justin Tucker stole our line away from us last week, the spread as of now per Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) is Chiefs -9.5 at -108, I think we take that line and we run with it along with the total being at 47.5 at -108. 

While I think the Chiefs are gonna have a solid night offensively, with the exception of the Raiders game, the games have been way too close for comfort for me to think they’ll go over, and with both teams staying under a combined 48 points the last few weeks, it gives me pause for my second NFL pick

NFL Pick: Chiefs -9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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NFL Pick: Under 47.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.