Bills vs. Patriots Free NFL Picks for Week 16

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Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Buffalo Bills will make a last stand to defend their AFC East title in Foxboro on Sunday. Buffalo trails the New England Patriots, who dominated the division for nearly 20 years, by a game.

A win over the Pats would put the two teams in a flat-footed tie headed into the final two games of the season. A loss would all but wrap up the division title for New England. But what about the NFL odds?

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, December 26, 2021-1:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

The Buffalo Bills will make a last stand to defend their AFC East title in Foxboro on Sunday. The Bills won the division last year, snapping a streak of Patriots dominance. New England had won the East 11 straight years and 16 of the last 17.

Now the Patriots are back in their old, familiar spot, leading Buffalo by a game with two to play. A win over the Pats would leave the Bills in a flat-footed tie with their nemesis. A loss would eliminate Buffalo and all but wrap up the division title for New England. Again.

Unfamiliar Position

The Bills find themselves underdogs for the Week 16 contest. It’s just the third time this year that Buffalo has gotten points in a matchup. The Bills covered against the Chiefs and took the Bucs to overtime before losing.

The Bills won four of the first five and seemed ready to live up to preseason expectations as a Super Bowl contender. Since then, they’ve played below .500. Buffalo hasn’t won in back-to-back weeks since Oct. 10. They’ll get the chance this week, coming off a win over Carolina that snapped a two-game losing streak.

Like so many other teams in the league, Buffalo is coping with a rash of positive COVID tests. Receiver Cole Beasley is the latest to go on the virus reserve list. He’s the fifth active player added to the Bills list. Beasley, who made headlines for his campaign against getting vaccinated earlier this year, tested positive and must sit out 10 days as an unvaccinated positive test. He’s experiencing mild symptoms.

“Just to be clear COVID is not keeping me out of this game. The rules are," Beasley said on Instagram. Joining Beasley on the list are guard Dion Dawkins, defensive end A.J. Epenesa, and linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who all missed last week’s game. Guard Jon Feliciano went to the ER on Sunday.

In more traditional injury news, receiver Emmanuel Sanders has been battling a knee sprain and missed last week’s game. He’s day-to-day for Sunday. Josh Allen, who became the first Bills quarterback to pass for 30 touchdowns in back-to-back years, will still have targets to throw to, including leading receiver Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.

Trouble in Pats Land

The Patriots suffered a costly loss to the Colts last week. New England had won seven straight going into their Week 14 bye, then came out of the week off with a 27-17 loss in Indianapolis. Wide receiver Nelson Agholor was hit hard making a catch and was knocked out of the game and into the league’s concussion protocol.

K’Neal Harry replaced him and was also hit hard late in the game and helped off the field. Receiver Kendrick Bourne was then placed on the team’s COVID reserve list on Monday, leaving New England dangerously thin at the position, with just two receivers on the active roster.

The team is considering bringing someone up from the practice squad if none of the ill/injured pass catchers are cleared. The defense also took a hit, losing tackle Carl Davis and linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley in the Colts game.

The Pick

The Patriots won the first showdown with the Bills to start December, winning in a wind-whipped Buffalo, 14-10, to take control of the division. Now, New England will need to find enough targets on offense to match the Bills score for score at home.

While the Bills had a dominant defense and explosive offense to start the year, the team has been maddeningly inconsistent. For your NFL picks, look for Bill Belichick to figure out a way to continue his dominance over Buffalo and the AFC East.

NFL Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-116) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Patriots -2.5 (-116)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.