Bills vs. Buccaneers NFL Week 14 Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

Sunday’s game between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is big, and so is that 53.5-point total on the NFL odds board.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, December 12, 2021- 4:25 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best team in football – or is it the Buffalo Bills? That all depends on how you look at things. Football Outsiders have Buffalo on top when it comes to unadjusted Value Over Average, but once they factor in the defense, it’s Tampa checking in at No. 1, and the Bills falling to third behind the New England Patriots.

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Fittingly enough, because Buffalo just played the Patriots, and now they get to face the Buccaneers. The Bills are 3.5-point road faves at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), but we’re avoiding the spread for this matchup and putting the Under in our NFL picks. That 53.5-point total at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) is just too tasty to pass up.

You’ll Have to Speak to Management

If you have to pick a side, the Bills (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) might be the right choice getting that extra half-point above the magic number three; however, the projections we’re looking at are all over the map, putting the Buccaneers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) anywhere on a range between two and five points ahead. We’re also giving Buffalo the side-eye here at the ranch, as they’ve fallen off the pace at 3-4 SU and 2-4-1 ATS since mid-October.

That run does include an Under record of 4-2 in their last six games, though. Not to put all the blame at the feet of QB Josh Allen, but he’s not playing like an MVP candidate right now – he’s in the game-manager territory, wedged in between Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders. It’s Buffalo’s league-best defense that’s keeping them in Super Bowl contention, and combined with Allen’s downgrade, that makes them understand out on the Week 14 NFL odds board.

Deep Thoughts

It also gives us confidence that Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today is projecting a combined score of 49.67 points for Sunday’s matchup. But we’re only going to recommend a small wager, as is normally the case for betting NFL totals. The Bucs have the highest-rated offense in the league, and the highest-rated quarterback in 44-year-old Tom Brady, which is just nuts. There also isn’t anything in the game-time weather forecast to help our cause.

On the good foot, Tampa’s defense – which was their strong suit last year – has improved considerably since the early weeks. The Under has been the right NFL pick in three of their last four games, and five of their last seven. And it just so happens that the Under is 110-83 (57%) across the league this year, and 36-23 (61%) the past 30 days, as coaches everywhere clamp down on deep throws. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Under 53.5 (–110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 53.5 (–110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.