Bills vs. Lions NFL Week 12 Picks and Prediction for Turkey Day: Lions Clawing at Respectability

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D'Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions reacts after scoring a touchdown against the New York Giants. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP.

The Lions have been abysmal for a long time but this season they are showing signs of life. After notching three straight wins, Detroit is bringing some much-needed respect to their franchise.

Let’s review the NFL odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

Thursday, November 24, 2022 – 12:30 PM EST at Ford Field

While the Lions were busy beating the Giants in New Jersey, the Bills called Ford Field home last week after blizzard conditions precluded them from meeting the Browns on their home turf in front of the legendary Bills Mafia.

So, off they went to Motown and the change of venue did little to change the anticipated outcome. Buffalo fell behind early but took a lead at the end of the first half that they would never relinquish in their 31-23 victory.

Star of the Show

Josh Allen had a modest passing performance with 197 yards and just 1 touchdown while the Bills’ ground game produced a Devin Singletary touchdown and a combined 171 rushing yards.

Buffalo's run-stop unit did an admirable job of limiting Nick Chubb to a mere 19 yards on 14 carries but the pass defense got cooked by Jacoby Brissett who had a season-high 324 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.

But if you are looking for the star of the show, then look no further than Bills’ kicker Tyler Bass who was a perfect 6-for-6 in field goal attempts including a 56-yard bomb in the third quarter. Bass tied the franchise mark for field goals in a game set back in 1996 by Steve Christie.

Lions Roaring!

Don’t look now but the Lions have won 3 straight, with wins over the Packers, Bears, and last week against the Giants. What’s even more impressive is that they were installed as underdogs in each contest and outscored their competition 77-57, indicating the offense is finally starting to click under Jared Goff.

However, in last week’s 31-18 win over the Giants, Goff was merely a game manager with only 167 yards through the air and no touchdowns or picks. Yet, the Lions’ Jamaal Williams found his groove with 3 rushing touchdowns and 64 of the team’s 160 rushing yards.

"He's our horse," Goff said of Williams, whose 12 rushing touchdowns lead the team. "Anytime we get down there, tight in the red zone, it feels automatic with him at times. As a quarterback, sometimes you want to throw them in, but Jamaal is automatic."

Bills vs. Lions: Game Prediction

This is a different Detroit Lions squad we have seen recently, and although it is highly unlikely we will see them in the postseason, they are proving capable of knocking off seemingly more talented teams.

Think about this for a moment. The Lions are 6-4 against the spread but have only been blown out in one game this season, a 29-0 shutout loss to the New England Patriots in Foxboro. They are a gritty bunch under Dan Campbell and have had a knack for hanging around.

On the other side of the ball are the Buffalo Bills, a team that seems poised for a Super Bowl appearance if they can get by the Chiefs. But their road to Glendale, Arizona in February has hit a few rough patches as of late.

An early season loss to the Dolphins signaled their road to a division title was not a foregone conclusion, which was reinforced several weeks later when the Jets pulled a stunning upset as 11-point home dogs, defeating Buffalo, 20-17. But the following week might have been worse as the Bills shot themselves in the foot and gave away the game to the Vikings in a 33-30 overtime loss.

Yet, the Bills got back on track last Sunday at a neutral site that they will be revisiting this week. Inclement weather forced the Bills from their Orchard Park digs and forced them to meet the Browns at Ford Field. Perhaps, their familiarity with the field will help them as visiting favorites but the line seems a bit long to me.

Final Picks

We should understand the circumstances surrounding this game. It’s a Thanksgiving midday matchup and the players will want to get this one done and move on. Don’t forget, this is also a short week for both teams and we have seen plenty of sloppy Thursday football this year which bodes well for the Lions.

The Bills do many things well, but defending the pass is not among them as we saw last week when Buffalo’s defense made Jacoby Brissett look like Deshaun Watson.

Buffalo is ranked 20th in that category and although we don’t think of Jared Goff as a gunslinger, we should be reminded that he is in charge of the No. 11 passing attack in the league, averaging nearly 234 yards per game.

I believe there will be enough turnovers and penalties to make this game a bit of a struggle to watch. And if that’s the case, the generous head starts the best sportsbooks are giving the home team looks like a good bet to me.

Grab the points and go low.

Score Prediction: Bills 27 - Lions 20

NFL Pick: Lions +9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Lions +9.5 (-108)
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NFL Pick: Under 53 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Under 53 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.