In what has to be the most anticipated game of the regular season to this point, we have a rematch between the Bills and Chiefs at Kansas City. These two played exactly 38 weeks ago this Sunday in an overtime classic, with the Chiefs outlasting the Bills 42-36 in the AFC Divisional Round.
Both teams have Super Bowl ambitions again and this could go a long way in deciding who has the No.1 seed in the AFC this season.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
Scoring Won't Be an Issue in This Matchup
Quarterbacks on Fire
With Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, the points should flow rather easily and what defense can hold the other offense to field goals or generate turnovers will go a long way in determining who wins.
To this point of the season, both are averaging over 30 points a game and doing so in somewhat different ways.
Allen and Buffalo are still taking the top off the offense with deep throws and hitting the likes of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Both can also catch the underneath passes. This creates more space for Isaiah McKenzie, TE Dawson Knox and RB Devin Singletary on other routes for Allen to hit.
Coach Sean McDermott doesn’t like Allen again leading Buffalo in rushing and wants to get back to the run offense they had late last season and only having Allen take off when needed.
Does the Chiefs' Offense Miss Tyreek Hill?
Kansas City has a different offense without Tyreek Hill, but it is no less effective with Mahomes. The chunk plays are not as plentiful but Kansas City is moving the chains as well as ever. The pigskin is being spread around more than ever to Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman on the perimeter.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a real weapon in the passing game and he and Isiah Pacheco are averaging five yards per game on the ground.
Who Covers the Spread?
This will be the fifth skirmish in just over three years between these football titans and the fourth time they are competing in the land of barbeque. That on the surface should favor Kansas City, but the opening NFL odds had this matchup at a Pick'em but Buffalo moved to -2 at the best sportsbooks.
No question that picking either side is not easy with the offensive capabilities of both clubs. However, Buffalo knows they should have won in the postseason in January and they still have the better defense.
Allen will lead the Bills to more touchdowns and the Bills’ defense will bend and not break and they leave Kansas City with a hard-fought victory.
What Is the Right Side for Totals?
The opening total was 53.5, which matches the closing number of the January playoff encounter and is a one point or two lower than the other three recent battles.
We would expect the total to climb to a certain degree based on public perception. Whether that holds or not is another matter.
Look for the final score to be right around the number and as stated, Buffalo’s offense will do a little more and hold Kansas City to a little less. The Bills are 16-4 Over after a win by 28 or more points and 8-0 Over after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half and wins 31-24.
NFL Pick: Over 53.5 (-110) at BetOnline
What Prop Bets Look Safe?
The betting odds might not be the most favorable for these props, yet the idea is to cash.
You have to consider Kelce for an anytime touchdown because he is Mahomes's top target for both short and long-range passes and he knows how to get open, especially in a more varied passing offense.
The same would be true for Diggs for Buffalo because he runs great routes and Allen and he are definitely on the same page for a connection.
Davis is not a bad longer-shot choice and review his Over/Under number for a distance touchdown, with the Over possibly a solid choice.
NFL Prop Pick: Kelce Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-139) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
NFL Prop Pick: Diggs Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-115) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Davis Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.