Biggest Line Movers of the NFL Divisional Round

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Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

In the playoffs, COVID protocol has died down and now we’re getting some real NFL games with rosters full of talent. It sounds fishy, and it might be, but as long as we’re getting games with full rosters, I’m not going to complain. Here are some of the biggest line movers for the games over the weekend. Let’s break it down at the NFL odds.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110)

  • Opened: -3.5 (-110)
  • Currently: -2.5 (-110)

Right off the bat, the Titans went from being a -2.5 point favorite to a -3.5 point favorite in the second round of the NFL Playoffs. The Titans are going to be adding Derrick Henry back to the roster and he should get the bulk of carries in this game.

That, coupled with a not-so-good Bengals defense, and many people are going to back the number one seed in the AFC in this matchup. Personally, I think there’s a bit of overreaction to what Henry brings to the table.

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The running game wasn’t really all that bad for the Titans throughout the season. The fumbles were a bit higher but, again, the Titans gained plenty of yards on the ground already this season. The Bengals still have the better offense and neither defense has been very consistent this year. So I’m not sure I’d back the Titans at -3.5 and would love the Bengals with that +3.5 number now.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-110)

  • Opened: -4.5 (-110)
  • Currently: -5.5 (-110)

There’s a theme taking place here. Most bettors are starting to bet the favorites a little bit more with those favorites coming off a first-round bye week. The Packers are led by Aaron Rodgers and have had a terrific season.

However, the line movement suggests that bettors aren’t comfortable backing the 49ers knowing there are some injuries in play. Nick Bosa has a concussion and Jimmy Garoppolo has a little injury.

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But both will likely end up playing in this game and just make some bettors look shameful for betting off those injuries. Either way, I’d expect this weekend to have tighter games. I wouldn’t want to bet against the 49ers but also don’t think a 4.5 and 5.5 is that big of a difference when looking at key numbers.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)

  • Opened: -2.5 (-110)
  • Currently: -1.5 (-110)

Let’s not forget what the Bills did to the Chiefs earlier this season. After a 38-20 win against the Chiefs, on the road, the Bills are capable of winning this game. Now bettors are starting to think that way, moving the Bills line to -1.5 at a couple of books now.

The Chiefs are much better than they were earlier this season but the Bills match up very well against these Chiefs. The secondary continued to keep every Chiefs player in front of them and didn’t let up massive gains down the field consistently like many teams do against Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill.

The Bills should be able to get their running game going and from there, the Bills could end up knocking off the former AFC Champions.