It’s been another hectic week of line movement in the NFL. A lot of people believe there’s only value in the NFL earlier in the week. While that’s simply not true, sharps still love getting in on the action early. Here are the lines that have seen the largest live movement at the NFL odds in Week 13.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 05, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
Total 40.5 (-110)
Opened: 42.5 (-110)
Currently: 40.5 (-110)
This line initially moved down with the uncertainty of quarterback Daniel Jones. Jones suffered a neck strain last week against the Eagles and had been ruled doubtful for this game against the Dolphins. Now there’s more optimism that Jones ends up playing but regardless, sharps have noticed trends where both teams have played solid defense in the last five weeks.
These offenses also aren’t powerhouses either, scoring under 20 points each per game this season. While the Dolphins have won four straight games, they’ve won three of those four against teams that won’t even be close to making the playoffs.
Therefore, the under was a hot commodity early when the game opened for bettors.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 05, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes Benz Stadium
Total 52 (-110)
Opened: 52 (-110)
Currently: 50.5 (-110)
The Falcons offense has been really bad in the last month or so. I mean, it’s been bad all year but the Falcons have scored just 24 points in their last three games against Dallas, New England, and Jacksonville.
It doesn’t get easier against the Buccaneers, who have allowed just 343.2 yards per game this season on the defensive end. Plus, bettors believe that if the Buccaneers blow the Falcons out early, the Buccaneers will hit the brakes and be scoreless in the second half.
This is Tom Brady facing the Falcons again. People love these kinds of games and are betting it based on Brady facing the Falcons and nothing more. With the Falcons only scoring 18.1 points per game this season, the under is a good look.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 05, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium
Colts -10 (-110)
Opened: -7 (-110)
Currently: -10 (-110)
The Colts are currently 6-6 and have clawed themselves all the way back in contention for a playoff spot. Prior to last week’s one-possession loss to the Buccaneers, the Colts had won three straight games against the Jets, Jaguars, and Bills.
Still, the line movement is a bit shady knowing that the Colts struggled to put away the Jaguars, at home, and only won 23-17. Betting this game at -10 wouldn’t be the smartest bet, knowing the Colts were -7 when the game opened.
The total in this game also dropped from 49 at open to as low as 44.5.
I’d think twice about betting this game unless you like the Texans or the over. The under and Colts -10 wouldn’t make sense anymore in comparison to where it all opened.
The Texans are 2-9 on the year and have lost four of their last five games with one road win against the Titans. Nobody is quite sure how the Texans were able to stun the Titans, but that’s beside the point. The Colts are the much better team but now the line movement is just too crazy.