We’ve been covering line movement throughout the entire season. Now we’re left with just two games on the Sunday slate as we’ve reached the NFL Conference Championship round.
Of course, as the NFL gets deeper into the playoffs, the percentage and handle of the bets being placed rise. So there’s going to be plenty of line movement at the NFL odds before the game begins. Let’s talk about it.
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
- Opened: -7 (-110)
- Currently: -7.5 (-110)
The Chiefs won a stunner against the Buffalo Bills, ultimately scoring with 13 seconds left on the clock to then defeat the Bills in overtime.
Kansas City is in the conference championship again and it’s really no surprise. This team is built to win and continues to do just that. But the line movement is favoring the Chiefs despite Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ success recently.
Burrow has been an underdog dating back to his game against the Chiefs as the regular season was concluding back on Week 16. Burrow threw for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns and helped the Bengals defeat the Chiefs and clinch the division in the AFC North.
It’s weird how quickly everyone forgets. The Bengals can’t allow the Chiefs to get out to an early lead, but I’d be all over the Bengals in this game, knowing the offense should be able to do exactly what the Bills and Josh Allen did last week to the Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Total 54.5
- Opened: 50.5 (-110)
- Currently: 54.5 (-110)
It’s no surprise that this game is seeing tons of movement to the over at the top-rated sportsbooks. In the game between these two teams in the regular season, the Bengals ended up winning the game, 34-31. That would be 65 points scored. That would help the over hit here.
The Bengals and Chiefs both don’t have great rushing defenses and it was clear that the secondaries could easily be beaten on both teams throughout the postseason.
I’ve got no criticism for those who took the over and helped move the line. I also think that the over is still in play, even at 54.5. But, for me, it would be kind of hard to take the over now, knowing I could’ve got it three points lower earlier this week.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Total 47
- Opened: 47 (-110)
- Currently: 45.5 (-110)
The total for this game has been bet down from 47 to 45.5. It’s not a crazy movement, but a movement nonetheless.
In the first game between these two rivals, the score ended up, 31-10, reaching just 41 points.
In the second game, the 49ers won again, 27-24, again going over the total, hitting 51 points.
But I guess a third time is a charm for under bettors. The 49ers kept Aaron Rodgers in check last week and helped bury Dak Prescott in the week before. We’ve also seen the Rams dominate the Arizona Cardinals on defense and give the Buccaneers a hard time until the offense tried to take the game back.
Either way, I think the under is the right call for our NFL picks, but don’t be shocked if the over somehow hits in this game either.