Best Week 9 NFL Player Props: Bet Aaron Jones to Torch Detroit’s Defense

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Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers warms up prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills. Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images/AFP.

The NFL’s Week 9 slate has 6 teams on a bye week, but there are still some good matchups for player prop picks such as Raiders-Jaguars, Chargers-Falcons, and Seahawks-Cardinals.

We have ground it down to a handful of player props that you can find at many of the best sportsbooks. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field

Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars)

  • Over 77.5 Rushing Yards

Workhorse backs may be a thing of the past in the NFL, but the Jaguars (Travis Etienne) and Raiders (Josh Jacobs) have two who may be up there with Derrick Henry right now for taking on the majority of touches in the backfield.

Some may find it amusing that we are talking about workhorse backs for teams that are trying to find a third win in Week 9, but that’s what happens when your quarterback is not meshing with the new head coach. You lean on the ground game. The Raiders were doing a fine job with Jacobs for 3 games before falling apart in a 24-0 loss to the Saints last week. Now they travel across the country to Jacksonville for an early start.

That is why we like the Jaguars and Etienne in this one. With James Robinson traded to the Jets, it is the Etienne show now, and he is showing exactly why the team valued him as a first-round pick in 2021.

Etienne has played roughly 80% of the snaps the last 2 weeks and has gone over 100 rushing yards in both games. He also had 86 yards against the Colts, so he has hit this over mark (77.5) in the last 3 games.

The Pick

The Raiders have not been terrible against the run, but when the Jaguars are still struggling to throw with Trevor Lawrence in his second season, they are going to rely on Etienne in this one.

Trust him to hit that Over again and you may want to bet on him to score another touchdown as well for parlays this weekend.

NFL Prop Pick: Travis Etienne Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Travis Etienne Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers)

  • Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

This should either be an easy hit or the latest sign that we need to fade the 2022 Packers. Green Bay seemed to be onto something in Buffalo with the running backs taking over, despite the team trailing for most of the game. Aaron Jones had 143 rushing yards, the first time the Packers lost a game with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and Jones rushing for over 90 yards (previously 17-0 in that situation).

Two years ago, Jones had a career-high 168 rushing yards against the Lions. He barely needs over a third of that to hit his over this week. With the injuries and lack of talent at receiver, Jones and AJ Dillon may just be the way forward for this offense.

Fortunately, the Lions are all-around terrible on defense. Detroit’s defense ranks 32nd in points, yards, first downs, net yards per pass attempt, and rushing touchdowns. We’d say go with Jones to score a touchdown, but he has actually been held out of the end zone 5 times in seven career meetings with Detroit. He just so happened to score 4 and 3 touchdowns in the 2 games he did find the end zone.

The Pick

But the yards are the easy part here. If the Packers fail to move the ball and score on this defense in the dome, you know they are cooked this season.

But we’ll trust Matt LaFleur and Rodgers to work their usual magic against the Lions, even if the game ends up being a tight one at the end. Jones should get his yards for your NFL picks.

NFL Prop Pick: Aaron Jones Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Aaron Jones Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Austin Ekeler (Los Angeles Chargers)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Austin Ekeler is always the best bet for the Chargers to score a touchdown, but some weeks are even better than others. This is one of them as the Falcons expect to score their share of points at home against the No. 31 scoring defense. It will be up to Justin Herbert to match, and he is down weapons as it looks unlikely he’ll have Keenan Allen or Mike Williams at wide receiver.

So, you could look at tight end Gerald Everett (+210) or wide receiver Josh Palmer (+135) as valuable touchdown scorers for the Chargers this week, but the absence of those big-time players just makes it all the more likely you’ll see Ekeler in the end zone again.

Ekeler started the season with 3 straight games held out of the end zone, but after finding it 3 times against Houston, he is back to scoring weekly.

The Pick

He also has 22 catches over the last 2 weeks, so that is another way he can produce and score for this offense. The touches are going to be there, and so will the touchdown.

NFL Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-148) at Bovada

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Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-148)
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Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

Zach Wilson (New York Jets)

  • Under 19.5 Pass Completions

Maybe people were too busy waiting for the playoffs to start to notice, but Zach Wilson made his first start against Buffalo in Week 18 last year and it was an objective disaster:

  • The Jets had 4 first downs in a 27-10 loss.
  • The Jets finished with 53 yards of offense thanks to Wilson taking 8 sacks for 79 yards.
  • Wilson completed 7-of-20 passes for 87 yards with nearly half that yardage coming on one 40-yard touchdown pass to Keelan Cole.

Wilson is no longer a rookie, but it is hard to say he is vastly improved. After throwing 3 picks against the Patriots, Wilson’s coach, Robert Saleh, had to make a statement that Wilson is still his starting quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo defense has gotten better by adding Von Miller, and top corner Tre’Davious White could possibly return this Sunday for his first game in nearly a full year. The rich get richer.

Wilson has started 18 games and reached 20 completions just 4 times. In games where he has been sacked at least 3 times, he has broken 20 completions once in 8 tries. That implies when the pressure is getting home, his accuracy gets worse, and he struggles even more to do anything.

The Pick

Wilson did not complete his 20th pass in a game for the first time this season until after the two-minute warning on Sunday.

That would be a bad beat in this matchup, but we trust the Bills even more than the Patriots to make Wilson look bad. Following the NFL odds, take the Under for his pass completions in this one.

NFL Prop Pick: Zach Wilson Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-110) at Bovada

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium

DK Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Under 65.5 Receiving Yards

This could be a risky pick as the Geno Smith-led Seahawks are rewriting our brains about everything we had come to expect from the team under Russell Wilson. Games that were supposed to be close have not been, and the offense is actually thriving on third down and getting decent pass protection for the quarterback.

But one fact that remains is that DK Metcalf has never had more than 58 receiving yards in any of his 7 games against Arizona. In the Week 6 meeting this year, the Cardinals held Metcalf to 34 yards despite him getting seven targets.

  • This is an Arizona defense that has held Cooper Kupp under 65 yards 3 times since 2021, something no other team has done once in that span.
  • The Cardinals also held A.J. Brown to 32 yards, by far his lowest game with the Eagles this year.
  • Davante Adams had 12 yards on 2 catches and seven targets against Arizona in Week 2.

This is not to say Arizona is invincible at stopping No. 1 wide receivers. Chris Olave (Saints) had 106 yards 2 weeks ago and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson just had 98 yards on Sunday.

The Pick

However, Arizona has always done a good job with Metcalf, who had one of his most famous plays against the team on a Sunday night game when he chased down an interception return, but that was not a catch.

This season, Metcalf has only hit 66 yards twice in 8 games. It feels like a safe bet that he will go Under 65.5 yards for the 8th time in a row against Arizona.

NFL Prop Pick: DK Metcalf Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (+116) at Bovada

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DK Metcalf Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (+116)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.