The Chicago Bears and New England Patriots meet in a rare prime-time matchup on Monday night. Chicago is 2-4, 31st in scoring, and barely wants to throw the ball with Justin Fields in his second year. The Patriots are 3-3 after two dominant wins with a third-string rookie quarterback named Bailey Zappe.
The Patriots are an 8-point favorite in a game with a total of 40 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Can the Bears keep it competitive, or will the Patriots just cruise to another win?
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
Monday, October 24, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Quarterback Props: Bears’ Justin Fields
- Over 167.5 Passing Yards
- Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
With the Patriots still choosing between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe for Monday night, our best NFL picks are on Justin Fields in this matchup.
After barely throwing the ball the first three weeks, Fields has at least increased his attempts since and thrown for over 170 yards in the last three games. The offense still has plenty of problems scoring, but a line like 167.5 yards is still so low to clear.
You also expect the Patriots to control this game and play from ahead, forcing Fields to throw more. It may just be a coincidence, but of the four times Fields has thrown at least 29 passes in a game, three were in prime time. His top three passing yardage games (291 against Steelers, 285 against Vikings, and 224 against Packers) were all in prime-time losses.
Bill Belichick’s defense has had some problems over the year with young, mobile quarterbacks, but no one will confuse Fields for Colin Kaepernick or Deshaun Watson.
Justin Fields: Our Prop Picks
Still, this is a low line for him to get over in what should be one of Chicago’s pass-heavier nights, and Fields’ flaws are also why him throwing an interception should be a mortal lock in this matchup.
Fields has been intercepted in six of his seven games with more than 22 pass attempts. Count on another one here.
NFL Pick: Justin Fields Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-200) at Bovada
Running Back Prop: Bears’ David Montgomery
- Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
Like with the quarterbacks, the Patriots’ injuries make prop picks tougher on their running backs because of Damien Harris’ likely return from a hamstring injury interfering with Rhamondre Stevenson’s yardage props. The Patriots have a good matchup here and should run well, but let’s look at the Bears here.
It’s the game script again. If you think the highly-favored Patriots are going to roll over the Bears and play from ahead nearly the whole game, then Chicago needs to put the offense in Fields’ hands, for better or worse.
The Patriots also just held Nick Chubb in Cleveland to 56 yards, which is very hard to do, but he only had 12 carries because of the game script. The Patriots went up 17-6 early in the third quarter and the Browns all but had to abandon the run.
David Montgomery: Our Prop Pick
In Chicago’s case, David Montgomery is feast or famine this year. He has three games where he failed to rush for 30 yards (left one with injury) and two games over 65 yards.
The problem is he has to share the rushing touches with his quarterback and with backup Khalil Herbert, who has really come on this year and looks great.
But for this pick, look for the Patriots to defend the run well and force the Bears into more passing, limiting Montgomery’s impact.
NFL Pick: David Montgomery Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-135) at Bovada
Wide Receiver Prop: Bears’ Darnell Mooney
- Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
Not to sound like a broken record here, but wide receiver is another position where the Patriots have been banged up, making their props hard to pick here.
So, we will continue on with our best bet being the game script of Chicago passing more. Normally, Darnell Mooney would be a bad pick against a Belichick defense because you figured the deep ball won’t be there for him in this game. Mooney can make up 44 yards on one play, but it’s probably not happening this week.
Darnell Mooney: Our Prop Pick
However, in his last game, Mooney had a season-high seven catches for 68 yards, so the Bears used him more on short routes to get production from by far their best receiver.
He has had at least 52 yards in three straight games to coincide with the increased passing totals from Fields.
Another low bar to clear for a No. 1 receiver, bet on Mooney to go over 43.5 yards in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Longshot Touchdown Scorer: Patriots’ Defense
If you want the surest touchdown pick in this game, it is Damien Harris for the Patriots, assuming he has no setbacks and is playing this week. The Bears have only allowed four passing touchdowns this season, but only two teams have allowed more than their nine rushing touchdowns allowed.
But if you want a longshot with great value, go with the New England defense to score a touchdown. Fields is the kind of mistake-prone quarterback that a Belichick defense can pounce on for an interception or fumble return for a touchdown.
The Patriots have already scored two defensive touchdowns this season, including a pick-six off Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, and a fumble return touchdown against the Lions. The Patriots had three return touchdowns last season.
Chicago has not surrendered one yet, but the Bears are one of six offenses to turn the ball over at least 10 times this season. New England’s 12 takeaways are tied for the third most.
NFL Pick: Damien Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-190) at Bovada
NFL Pick: New England D/ST Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+475) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.