Some of the biggest games on the NFL schedule this season are happening Sunday in Week 6.
New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
Packers’ Prop Bet: Aaron Jones
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Packers are only averaging 19.4 points per game and have struggled in games they were heavily favored against like the Patriots and Giants. They nearly lost both games and did lose in London last week after Aaron Rodgers had two passes batted down in the red zone.
In both situations, the Packers only needed one yard to get a first down and ignored the run, which is supposed to make up a huge part of this Davante Adams-less offense with the backfield duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Yet, through five games, Allen Lazard (three) has as many touchdowns as Jones (two) and Dillon (one) combined. Jones has not scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games going back to last year and including the playoffs. He is still getting it done with yards and his opportunities to touch the ball, but they just have not converted into scores like they used to.
Jones has never failed to find the end zone in four consecutive games in the same regular season. With the Packers hopefully getting back to some basics and pounding their backs at home, look for Jones to find the end zone for the first time since Week 2. The Jets have already allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season, including three to Nick Chubb in Cleveland.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Ravens’ Prop Bet: Lamar Jackson
- Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson is on another one of his rushing tears that only he can do at the NFL level with success. He has rushed for 357 yards over the last four games, but Sunday against the Bengals was the lowest game at 58 yards. Still, that would have been enough to clear his over of 57.5 rushing yards this week.
Jackson has rushed for at least 58 yards in 67.2% of his career starts, a great figure. The Giants are also the highest-blitzing defense in the league at nearly 45% under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who was on Baltimore’s staff the last few years and is very familiar with Jackson from practice.
This could make it a tough passing day for Jackson if Martindale throws the kitchen sink at him, but anticipating one of those blitzes and sending Lamar into the open field on a draw could lead to a huge gain that could take care of the majority of this over in one snap. Look for Jackson to clear his rushing over in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Bengals’ Prop Bet: Ja’Marr Chase
- Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
This is when talent meets opportunity. Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best young wideouts in the NFL, but so is his teammate Tee Higgins, who has taken a lot of the flashier plays and production from Chase going back to late last year.
But when Higgins left Week 1’s game against Pittsburgh with a concussion in the first half, it was Chase’s stage to shine with 10 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, in the four games since, he has one more touchdown and no games with more than 81 yards. His yards per catch have fallen from 18.0 to 10.7 this year as the Bengals are still near the bottom of the league in yards per play.
Some Key Players May Be Missing
But now Chase returns home to Louisiana and the Superdome to take on the Saints, a struggling defense that could be without top corner Marshon Lattimore after suffering an abdominal injury on Sunday. In that game, Seattle’s top wideouts, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, each had at least 88 yards and a touchdown.
The Bengals could also be without Higgins, who left the Baltimore game early with an ankle injury that has kept him out of practice.
After much criticism of Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor’s usage of Chase this season, and the possibility that Higgins and Lattimore could be out, this gives him the green light to be the stud wideout on the field without a stud corner to guard him. Chase should have a big game here and easily hit his over.
NFL Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Vikings’ Prop Bet: Justin Jefferson
- Over 6.5 Receptions
This is one of the harder games to judge this week when we don’t really know how good either team is. Both have needed several comebacks to get where they are, and the Vikings in particular have been coming back against bad teams. At least the Dolphins did it to Buffalo and Baltimore, but those were with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are looking to start third-string quarterback and rookie Skylar Thompson.
Thompson got his feet wet last week in a game that was competitive until the fourth quarter, when the Jets blew the Dolphins out. But the Vikings seem incapable of blowing anyone out this year, so this game should feature plenty of Kirk Cousins passes into the fourth quarter.
He loves going to Justin Jefferson of course, and Jefferson just had his third game with at least 147 yards this season. That might make you want to play his over in yards (85.5), but you can get a surer thing with his receptions going over as he has had at least 10 catches in back-to-back games.
Xavien Howard Will Not Be at Full Strength
The key thing here is top Miami corner Xavien Howard has been battling a groin injury that has kept him out of action. He hopes to play on Sunday, but it would seem impossible he would be at full strength. That could be a dangerous thing against Jefferson, who is as dangerous as any receiver in the league right now.
Miami’s pass defense is allowing quarterbacks to complete 68.1% of their passes with eight touchdowns to one interception and 8.3 yards per attempt.
The Vikings are leaning heavily on Jefferson in new coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense, so at least seven catches should be easy for him to hit again.
NFL Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 Receptions (-130) at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
Requested Special on Bovada
- 50+ Receiving Yards Each for Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Travis Kelce, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
The biggest game of the week, if not the entire regular season, deserves the biggest bet. At Bovada, you can scroll to Special Bets where this requested special is listed with great odds (+300) for the two leading receivers on each team to all have at least 50 receiving yards.
Stefon Diggs only had 7 yards on three catches for the Bills in the 2021 AFC divisional playoffs, his least productive game in a Buffalo uniform. That will not happen again.
He is moving around the offense more than ever with new coordinator Ken Dorsey, and Diggs has had at least 62 yards in every game this season.
Another 50 should not be a problem against a Kansas City defense that has been shredded by four straight No. 1 wideouts (Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams).
Gabriel Davis had 201 yards and four touchdown catches in that stunning playoff game in January against the Chiefs. He just had a 98-yard touchdown on the first drive of the game against the Steelers, and he followed it up with another bomb.
He looked healthy for the first time since Week 1, and he should be a threat in this game again. Maybe not multiple touchdowns, but he will get 50 yards.
As for Kansas City, Travis Kelce is coming off one of the strangest stat lines in NFL history against the Raiders: eight targets, seven catches, 25 yards, and four touchdowns.
Every other player in NFL history to catch four touchdowns had at least 93 yards to go with them, but Kelce only had 25 as he was primarily used in the red zone. He has had at least 57 yards in the last four meetings with Buffalo since 2020. He should be safe to hit that number again.
The most skeptical leg to worry about here may be Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but he is emerging as the No. 1 wide receiver in this offense that had to replace Tyreek Hill’s production. He’s had 48, 63, and 90 yards in his last three games, with his best coming on Monday night against the Raiders.
He is a deep threat who can score a 50-yard touchdown like Davis has. He may not find the end zone in this matchup, but he should get 50 yards again, if not considerably more, if this game is as great as it has the potential to be.
Play the +300 odds, then sit back and enjoy these four players get to work with the top two quarterbacks in the game right now.
NFL Pick: 50+ Receiving Yards Each for Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Travis Kelce, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+300) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.