Best NFL Week 6 Monday Night Player Props for Broncos vs. Chargers

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Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers dives to score a touchdown against the Houston Texans. Bob Levey/Getty Images/AFP.

The Denver Broncos are back in prime time to the delight of no one except maybe the Los Angeles Chargers, assuming they can take care of business at home on Monday night. Russell Wilson is battling the critics and a shoulder injury, but he is expected to lead the No. 31 offense in this matchup with Justin Herbert and the Chargers.

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 45.5 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. The Broncos had some extra days to prepare for this one after that 12-9 overtime loss to the Colts on a Thursday night. The Chargers just won 30-28 in Cleveland as Austin Ekeler is heating up again at running back.

Can we get more of an AFC West shootout like we expected months ago, or is this going to be another dud for Denver? Denver is averaging 12 points per prime-time appearance in 2022, so for the sake of our NFL prop picks, let’s hope the Chargers bring out the best in these disappointing Broncos.

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Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, October 17, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

Quarterback Props: Broncos’ Russell Wilson

  • Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
  • Over 226.5 Passing Yards

Call me crazy, but maybe the fourth time is the charm for Russell Wilson and this Denver offense in prime time this season. We have seen some ugly games from Denver against San Francisco (incredible defense) and Indianapolis, and the Week 1 loss in Seattle was more about bad play calling, coaching, and execution rather than Wilson just missing throws like we have seen in recent weeks.

But after getting some extra rest days to heal up and figure this offense out, Wilson also has received an injection to his shoulder that hopefully makes him feel better too. He is facing more criticism now than at any point in his NFL career, and this is a golden opportunity in the kind of division game the Broncos acquired him for to lead them to success. Plus, we know the Chargers are no strangers to letdowns.

Wilson absolutely can throw for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns in this game. He just did that two weeks ago against the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Chargers have already allowed Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Davis Mills, and Trevor Lawrence to throw multiple touchdowns passes this season.

Just don’t show Wilson the red-zone tape of Jacoby Brissett forcing that interception against the Chargers in Week 5. The Broncos have enough red-zone issues.

The Chargers have yet to allow a 300-yard passer, but things should be easier without pass rusher Joey Bosa (groin) chasing Wilson. Besides, this passing line is nowhere near 300 yards for Wilson.

It sounds risky to trust Wilson right now, but it just does not seem logical that after building a Hall of Fame resume for 10 seasons in Seattle that a 33-year-old Wilson would simply fall apart in Denver. The Chargers may still win the game but ride with Russ to hit his overs.

NFL Prop Pick: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+118) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+118)
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NFL Prop Pick: Russell Wilson Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Russell Wilson Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Running Back Prop: Chargers’ Austin Ekeler

  • Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

Even before Javonte Williams, Denver’s best running back, tore his ACL, the backfield situation was a mess for this team. They couldn’t figure out how to run in short touchdowns, and they were still giving Melvin Gordon too many touches over Williams.

That is why I am fading the Broncos’ backs even though the matchup is a juicy one with this defense, not to mention a revenge game for Gordon, the former Charger.

But the best back in this game is Austin Ekeler on the Chargers. He scored 20 touchdowns last season and is as dynamic of a receiver as any back in the NFL today. That is why it was so surprising to see him have zero touchdowns through three games, and he had 32 carries for 80 yards on the ground.

Fortunately, the terrible Houston run defense woke him up and he scored 3 touchdowns in Week 4. Then against the Browns last week, he exploded for 173 rushing yards, outrushing Nick Chubb in the process, and he scored 2 more touchdowns. It was by far the best rushing game of Ekeler’s career.

The Broncos have done a good job of keeping him in check on the ground in his career, but he does have two 58-yard rushing games against Denver, which is right on the nose to hit his over in this game. But if you believe the Chargers are a legit offense as they have looked the last two weeks, then they should be able to get Ekeler to 58 yards in this matchup.

NFL Prop Pick: Chargers’ Austin Ekeler Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Bovada

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Chargers’ Austin Ekeler Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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Wide Receiver Prop: Broncos’ Jerry Jeudy

  • Over 52.5 Receiving Yards

If you look at Herbert’s four games against Denver, he usually spreads the ball around well and does not produce huge yardage numbers with any one receiver in particular. With Keenan Allen only possibly having a chance to return for the first time since Week 1, I would put more attention on the receivers from Denver.

In continuing with the Wilson redemption game angle, he needs one of his wideouts to step up. Jerry Jeudy has played in 31 games and has topped 53 yards in just over half of them (16-of-31). That’s not bad given the quarterback play he has been saddled with.

Jeudy has gone over 52.5 yards in three out of five games this year with Wilson at quarterback. One of the times he didn’t was the Houston game in which he left in the first half injured after just 10 snaps.

He has Denver’s longest passing play of the season (67 yards), and he should be a good play to hit his over in this matchup as the Broncos look for some respectability and answers on offense.

NFL Prop Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Jerry Jeudy Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Longshot Touchdown Scorer: Chargers’ Zander Horvath

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

If you want the safest touchdown pick in the game, it is Ekeler for the Chargers. But if you want something more creative, then consider Chargers fullback Zander Horvath.

The Chargers have 2 touchdowns from inside the 4-yard line this season and both were 1-yard touchdown passes from Herbert to Horvath. They both happened in the first two games of the season too. Horvath has played 21 more offensive snaps since those two games, and he had 2 carries against the Browns, so he has not been phased out of the offense.

If the Chargers get in close to the goal line like they did in Week 1, then maybe Horvath has a chance for a third touchdown on a play few would expect coming.

It is a sneaky value play for your NFL picks from this game that will hopefully have a few touchdowns in it.

NFL Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-124) at Bovada

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Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-124)
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NFL Prop Pick: Zander Horvath Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1100) at Bovada

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Zander Horvath Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.